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MNI US Employment Insight, May'23: Moderating Jobs Growth But Historically Tight

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth was stronger than expected in April but more than offset by unusually large negative revisions for the prior two months, leaving a moderating trend but still stronger rate of job creation.
  • Other major details were hawkish though, with the unemployment rate surprisingly hitting fresh multi-decade lows and average hourly earnings far stronger than expected (albeit with the less volatile non-supervisory category showing less of an acceleration).
  • Treasuries sold off but the USD unwound initial strength as equities firmed. Coming close to this week’s CPI (May 10), analysts broadly keep to post-FOMC views with a majority but not all seeing the case for a June pause being intact. How long this pause lasts for remains contentious.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportMay2023.pdf

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