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MNI US Employment Insight, Sep'22: 50 vs 75bp Hike Debate Open

  • The report was probably soft enough to preclude a 75bp hike as a "done deal" at least until the August CPI data on Sep 13, justifying the 3+bp drop in implied pricing for the meeting (now 64bp, vs just under 68bp pre-payrolls).
  • But the report was also strong enough to push off any talk of a dovish "pivot".
  • In other words, a report like today's was probably necessary though in itself not sufficient for another 75bp move – with similar opinions shared by analysts reviewed.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE:

USEmploymentReportSep2022.pdf

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