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MNI US Inflation Insight, Jun'23: Core CPI Accelerates But Some Better Details

Markets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Core CPI inflation was modestly stronger than expected in May as it increased 0.44% M/M vs a consensus average of 0.36%, but the surprise was heavily driven by another strong increase in used car prices.
  • Underlying figures generally continued to show signs of some moderation, with confirmation of April’s softer supercore service inflation and core goods prices ex used vehicles flat on the month.
  • Core PCE estimates currently track little progress from April though, perhaps just 1-2 hundredths below April’s 0.38% M/M (post-PPI tweaks aside).
  • Pre PPI, the market further sliced hike odds for today’s FOMC decision and indeed most analysts see it pausing or skipping, with Citi a notable exception with a hike remaining a base case. There is however a good spread of views as to whether there will be another hike or not, with a cumulative +20bps priced for Sept.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USInflationInsightJun2023.pdf

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