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MNI US Inflation Insight: Mar 2022 - Core Inflation Slows Slightly (Pre-War)

  • The February 2022 CPI report was about as close to consensus as you can get with headline hitting 7.9% Y/Y and core 6.4% Y/Y.
  • Monthly core goods inflation slowed abruptly from very high rates yet core services accelerated further to the fastest monthly rate since 1992.
  • Monthly core inflation (as well as an additional measure that strips out shelter and used cars) pulled back from January but remained far above the Fed’s inflation target.
  • A 25bp hike next week is seen as locked in but this report does little to settle the argument of a 25bp or 50bp hike in May. Focus will now turn to the FOMC statement and subsequent commentary, starting with Powell’s press conference.
See the full report here with MNI analysis plus summaries from 12 sell-side analysts:

USInflationInsightMar2022.pdf

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