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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Headline CPI accelerated to 0.6% M/M as expected in August on a surge in energy prices, but core CPI inflation was stronger than expected at 0.28% M/M (cons 0.2) after two months at 0.16% M/M.
- There were some large cross currents, but the broad takeaway was upside coming from increases in categories that might not be repeated in core PCE.
- There was a step back in the progress made in various dispersion and underlying metrics, but nevertheless the market reacted by seeing 2024 rate cuts increase by 7-8bps after a prior disinversion trend.
- Still, coming ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and new dot plot, the ~100bp of cuts priced for 2024 is in line with the June dot plot, albeit from about a half hike lower starting point.
- We expect that 5.6% median 2023 dot to remain in place whilst we currently pencil in a drop in the 2023 core PCE forecasts to 3.5 or 3.6% (vs 3.9% in June's projections) next week.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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