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MNI US Macro Weekly: Relative Calm Before The Storm

An important week ahead for US macro with Q3 releases for GDP, core PCE and ECI before October's likely messy NFP report
USCentral Bank NewsHomepageFederal ReserveGlobalStoryNorth AmericaMarketsRegion

MNI (LONDON) - Executive Summary

  • Initial jobless claims surprised lower but continuing claims stepped to fresh highs since Nov 2021. The combination supports anecdotal evidence that firms are slowing re-hiring rather than turning more earnestly to layoffs to reduce costs.
  • Flash PMIs modestly beat expectations in preliminary October data to leave a small increase on the month, but the rate of services selling price inflation cooled especially sharply to its lowest in over four years.
  • Those main releases have seen little net impact in pricing for the next three FOMC meetings but implied rates are higher further out, potentially related to plays around former President Trump’s election odds.
  • Next week sees some major US releases including Q3 GDP, September PCE, Q3 ECI and October NFPs.
  • A 25bp cut is currently broadly priced for the Fed from the Nov 7 decision just two days after the presidential election. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: US week in macro_241025.pdf

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MNI (LONDON) - Executive Summary

  • Initial jobless claims surprised lower but continuing claims stepped to fresh highs since Nov 2021. The combination supports anecdotal evidence that firms are slowing re-hiring rather than turning more earnestly to layoffs to reduce costs.
  • Flash PMIs modestly beat expectations in preliminary October data to leave a small increase on the month, but the rate of services selling price inflation cooled especially sharply to its lowest in over four years.
  • Those main releases have seen little net impact in pricing for the next three FOMC meetings but implied rates are higher further out, potentially related to plays around former President Trump’s election odds.
  • Next week sees some major US releases including Q3 GDP, September PCE, Q3 ECI and October NFPs.
  • A 25bp cut is currently broadly priced for the Fed from the Nov 7 decision just two days after the presidential election. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: US week in macro_241025.pdf