MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Stocks Move From Strength to Strength

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Moves from Strength to Strength

In the equity space, S&P E-minis bulls are holding onto gains. The focus is 4160.13 next, 1.500 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.

In the FX world, EURUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone, with prices topping the 1.1938 50-day EMA and key resistance area which suggests scope for an extension higher. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish with a firm resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support and bear trigger to watch is 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A brief test of this support earlier in the week failed to result in a clear break. EURGBP key near term resistance is 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break of this hurdle is required to suggest scope for an extension of recent gains. USDJPY remains vulnerable near-term. The 20-day EMA has been probed. A clear break would open 108.41, Mar 23 low.

On the commodity front:

• Gold is firmer, but still below recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $1758.8, Apr 8 high. Watch support at $1721.4, Apr 5 low.
• Brent (M1) key directional triggers are unchanged. Resistance is at $65.39, Mar 29 high with key support at $60.33, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger.
• WTI (K1) directional triggers are resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high and support at $57.25, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger

In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. The key resistance is at 172.66, Mar 25 high. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is unchanged at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Initial firm resistance is at 128.93, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.2086 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2037 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1990 High Mar 11 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1962 @ 06:00 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 2: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.1704/1695 Low Mar 31 / 38.2% of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally

EURUSD traded higher yesterday extending the recent recovery that started Mar 31. Yesterday's gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bullish case and paving the way for a climb towards 1.1990, Mar 11 high and a key near-term resistance. A break would open 1.2037, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.1861, Apr 7 and 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Attention Is On Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3968 Former bull channel base
• RES 3: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 1.3919 High Apr 6 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3840 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 1.3771 @ 06:05 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.3663 Low Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

GBPUSD is marginally firmer. The pair however maintains a softer tone. Firm resistance is unchanged at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. Note, a former bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low also highlights a key resistance at 1.3968. Clearance of 1.3919 and 1.3968 is required to strengthen a bullish argument. Attention is on key support 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A clean break would resume the 1.5 month downtrend and open 1.3641, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyeing 0.8731 Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8791 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8769 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8712 High Apr 13
• PRICE: 0.8684 @ 06:14 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430/04 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

A bullish short-term EURGBP outlook remains intact, the cross traded to fresh April highs Tuesday. Recent gains reinforce the current bullish theme following a bullish engulfing reversal pattern on Mar 6. The cross has also traded above a key resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and above the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high where a break would strengthen the current bull cycle. Initial support is at 0.8582, Apr 7 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Needle Points South

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.55/97 High Apr 6 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 109.96 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 108.93 @ 06:25 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 108.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
• SUP 3: 108.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 107.30 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low

USDJPY remains vulnerable following the recent pullback from the Mar 31 high. The pair has traded lower today reinforcing the current bearish cycle and signalling scope for weakness towards 108.41, Mar 23 low and a key short-term support. The current pullback is likely a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at 109.96, the Apr 9 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.34 @ 06:30 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 129.57/13 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 128.95/93 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY is unchanged. The cross recently traded below 130.00 but did find support at 129.57, Apr 8 low. Price has also tested the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose key support around the 50-day EMA at 128.95 and trendline support at 128.93, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. While this support zone holds, the uptrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of gains is 130.69.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.7774 High Mar 19
• RES 2: 0.7750 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.7677 High Apr 7 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.7666 @ 06:38 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD is firmer today however the pair continues to trade within its recent range. Key support is at 0.7532, Apr 1 low and the outlook, while resistance at 0.7677 remains intact, is bearish. This follows the recent breach of 0.7563, Mar 25 low and the Feb 2 low of 0.7564. Note too, a head and shoulders reversal pattern was confirmed on Mar 23. Clearance of 0.7677, Apr 7 high would alter the short-term picture and allow for a stronger bounce.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2541 @ 06:44 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.2502 Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The USDCAD failed to hold onto yesterday's highs. A bullish theme nevertheless remains intact following the recent recovery from 1.2502, Apr 5 low. Trend signals still point north and attention is on 1.2647, Mar 30 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 18 and would open 1.2749, Feb 26 high. Key S/T support is 1.2502, Apr 5 low. A break would highlight a bearish risk.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.66 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 172.12 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 171.53 @ 05:13 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 170.98 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 170.71/52 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures remain vulnerable with initial resistance at 172.12, Apr 8 high. A bearish focus remains intact with attention on key S/T support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The move lower from 172.66, Mar 25 low suggests the recovery between Feb 25 - Mar 25 was a correction and that this correction is possibly over. Bearish!

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 135.350 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 135.150 @ 05:19 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 135.010 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 134.940/870 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 19 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.670 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures outlook is unchanged and remains bearish with recent gains considered a correction. The Apr 9 sell-off refocuses attention on support at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.780, the Mar 8 and 9 lows and potentially below. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at 135.520, Mar 25 high. Initial resistance is at 135.350.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 112.173 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.171 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.150 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 112.130 @ 05:24 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 112.100 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Initial Schatz futures resistance has been defined at 112.150, Mar 25 high. The contract also remains below the key resistance at 112.165, Mar 25 high. Recent gains are considered corrective and a bearish focus remains intact. A move lower would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. Clearance of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Consolidating

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
• RES 1: 128.66 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 128.21 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures continue to trade closer to recent highs. Despite last week's gains, the downtrend remains intact. Attention is on key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the trigger for a resumption of the trend. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a test of the 126.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.93, Mar 25 high. A break of this level would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Clears Support

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 149.27 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 148.21 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 147.94 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 147.68 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower yesterday and through support at 148.36, Mar 18 low. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme and paves the way for weakness towards support at 147.56, Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. On the upside, resistance is seen at 149.27, Apr 9 high ahead of the firmer 149.47 level, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Consolidating Ahead Of 4000

• RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 3: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3988.10 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 3699.99 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 3950.18 Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3898.77 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 is consolidating but maintains a bullish theme. The index registered a fresh trend high on Apr 6 of 3988.10. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the psychological 4000.00 handle next. On the downside, key trend support is at 3784.09. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top. Bullish!

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Firmer Within Its Range

• RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $67.76 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.39 - High Mar 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $64.37 @ 06:42 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $56.80 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures are trading higher, however price remains below recent highs and within the recent range. The Mar 30 break higher through $64.97, Mar 22 high failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price needs to clear $65.39, Mar 30 high to again suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open $67.76, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is at $60.33, low Mar 23.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Still Below Resistance

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.27 - High Mar 30
• PRICE: $60.90 @ 06:53 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures are trading higher but remain within the recent range. The Mar 30 break above resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high, failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price needs to clear $62.27, Mar 30 high to once again suggest scope for gains. This would open $64.88, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $57.25, Mar 23 low. A break would resume bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1775.9 - High Feb 26
• RES 1: $1757.7/58.8 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 8
• PRICE: $1746.5 @ 07:16 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold remains below recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $1758.8, Apr 8 high where a break is required to strengthen a bullish case and note, this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA. While resistance remains intact, the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback and attention is on initial support at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Clearance of this level would suggest scope for weakness towards the key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low.

SILVER TECHS: 50-day EMA Marks Key Resistance

• RES 4: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 3: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 2: $25.657 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $25.617 - High Apr 8
• PRICE: $24.451 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $24.617 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 12

Silver resistance has been defined at $25.617, Apr 8 high. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and upticks are considered corrective. Recent bearish activity has opened $23.524, Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. On the upside, the 20-day EMA has been probed. An extension higher would expose $25.657, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the average would be a bullish development.