MNI US Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - All eyes will be tuned to the 'Super Thursday' releases at

0700ET, when the Bank of England set to publish the minutes from its latest

monetary policy meeting, alongside the third Quarterly Inflation Report of the

year.

     Since the last MPC meeting - where Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders

surprised virtually everybody by joining usual suspect Kristin Forbes in voting

to hike the Bank Rate by 0.25 basis points - chatter of policy tightening, which

gained traction immediately after the June 14 meeting, died down somewhat as

relatively soft economic data rolled in.

     All but one of the analysts polled in a MNI survey expect Bank Rate to hold

firm at 0.25%. Nomura, the exception, judge that the conditions required to

warrant a tightening in policy are now in place, forecasting a 0.25bp hike to

0.5%.

     As for the Bank Rate vote breakdown, consistent with the median forecast

for an unchanged Bank Rate, analysts see a 6-2 (unchanged-hike) split as the

likeliest outcome. Kristin Forbes, the lone dissenter before June, is no longer

a member on the MPC.

     For the vote breakdown to match June's 5-3 outturn in July, another MPC

member would have to join McCafferty and Saunders, assuming that that pair do

not have a change of heart.

     The August meeting will be the first attended by new MPC member Silvana

Tenreyro but will have come too early for Dave Ramsden, appointed the new Deputy

Governor, who will officially begin his Bank duties on September 4

     The US data calendar kicks off at 0730ET, with the release of the

Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions.

     At 0830ET, the US Jobless Claims data will be released.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 240,000

in the July 29 week after a 10,000 increase in the previous week. The four-week

moving average, which held steady in the July 22 week, would decline by 2,500 in

the coming week as the 250,000 level in the July 1 week drops out of the drops

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no

revisions. Auto plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While

automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year, seasonal

factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in the month, followed

by declines at the end of the month.

     The July final Markit Services Index data will be published at 0945ET, with

the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the June factory new orders numbers

following at 1000ET.

     The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to a reading of 56.9

in July after rising to 57.4 in June. The flash Markit Services estimate held

steady at 54.2 in July.

     Factory orders are expected to rise 3.0% in June. Durable goods orders

surged 6.5% in the month on a spike in aircraft orders, while nondurables orders

are expected to post a further decline due to soft energy prices.

     At 1030ET, the latest US Natural Gas Stocks numbers will be published. At

1630ET, the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data will be released.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com