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MNI US Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - All eyes will be tuned to the 'Super Thursday' releases at
0700ET, when the Bank of England set to publish the minutes from its latest
monetary policy meeting, alongside the third Quarterly Inflation Report of the
year.
     Since the last MPC meeting - where Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders
surprised virtually everybody by joining usual suspect Kristin Forbes in voting
to hike the Bank Rate by 0.25 basis points - chatter of policy tightening, which
gained traction immediately after the June 14 meeting, died down somewhat as
relatively soft economic data rolled in.
     All but one of the analysts polled in a MNI survey expect Bank Rate to hold
firm at 0.25%. Nomura, the exception, judge that the conditions required to
warrant a tightening in policy are now in place, forecasting a 0.25bp hike to
0.5%.
     As for the Bank Rate vote breakdown, consistent with the median forecast
for an unchanged Bank Rate, analysts see a 6-2 (unchanged-hike) split as the
likeliest outcome. Kristin Forbes, the lone dissenter before June, is no longer
a member on the MPC.
     For the vote breakdown to match June's 5-3 outturn in July, another MPC
member would have to join McCafferty and Saunders, assuming that that pair do
not have a change of heart.
     The August meeting will be the first attended by new MPC member Silvana
Tenreyro but will have come too early for Dave Ramsden, appointed the new Deputy
Governor, who will officially begin his Bank duties on September 4
     The US data calendar kicks off at 0730ET, with the release of the
Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions.
     At 0830ET, the US Jobless Claims data will be released.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 240,000
in the July 29 week after a 10,000 increase in the previous week. The four-week
moving average, which held steady in the July 22 week, would decline by 2,500 in
the coming week as the 250,000 level in the July 1 week drops out of the drops
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
revisions. Auto plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While
automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year, seasonal
factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in the month, followed
by declines at the end of the month.
     The July final Markit Services Index data will be published at 0945ET, with
the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the June factory new orders numbers
following at 1000ET.
     The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to a reading of 56.9
in July after rising to 57.4 in June. The flash Markit Services estimate held
steady at 54.2 in July.
     Factory orders are expected to rise 3.0% in June. Durable goods orders
surged 6.5% in the month on a spike in aircraft orders, while nondurables orders
are expected to post a further decline due to soft energy prices.
     At 1030ET, the latest US Natural Gas Stocks numbers will be published. At
1630ET, the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data will be released.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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