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MNI US Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday is the last day of the month and throws up a full
data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic.
     Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 0730ET, with the
publication of the Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions
     At 0830ET, the latest Jobless Claims and the Personal Income data will be
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise and additional
2,000 to 236,000 in the August 26 week after a 2,000 increase in the previous
week. The four-week moving average, which has declined for four straight weeks,
would continue that streak, falling by 1,250 in the coming week as the 241,000
level in the July 29 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
     Personal income is expected to post a 0.3% increase in July, as payrolls
rose by 209,000, average weekly hours held steady at 34.5 hours, and hourly
earnings rose by 0.3%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4%, as retail
sales jumped 0.6% in the month and were still up 0.5% excluding a 1.2% gain in
motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were up 0.5% in the month,
while sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services rose
0.6%, indicating underlying strength. The core PCE price index is expected to
post a 0.1% increase in July, which should keep the y/y measure well below 2%.
     Canadian Q2 GDP data will be released at the same time.
     At 0900ET, the Milwaukee Manufacturing ISM index will cross the wire,
followed by the MNI Chicago PMI at 1345GMT.
     The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to a reading of 59.7 in August
after reversing to 58.9 in July. Other regional data already released suggest
solid expansion, particularly in the Empire State region.
     At 1000ET, the NAR pending home sales data will be released, followed by
the DOE Natural Gas Stocks at 1430GMT.
     Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan will participate in a
moderated Q&A session at the North American Strategy for Competitiveness in
Farmers Branch, Texas, with audience Q&A, starting at 1130ET.
     Late US data will see the release of the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data
at 1630ET.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:

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