MNI US Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Across the Atlantic, the US data calendar will kick off at

0830ET, with the release of the US retail sales numbers and the Empire State

Manufacturing Survey.

     Empire State index is expected to fall back to a still-strong reading of

19.0 in September after surging to 25.2 in August.

     Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in August after a surprise 0.6%

increase in July, as auto sales were soft in part due to the hurricane-affected

areas. The impact of Hurricane Harvey at the end of the month should be seen in

several retail categories, but the real impact will likely be seen with

September data. AAA reported that gasoline prices rose in mid-August from one

month earlier after declines in recent months, which should offer some support

to the ex-motor vehicles number, which is seen rising 0.5%.

     At the same time, the Canadian CREA home sales and household debt to income

numbers will be published.

     The US industrial production numbers will cross the wire at 0915ET.

     Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in August after a 0.2% gain

in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 in August, while auto

production jobs rose by 14,000 and the factory workweek declined to 40.7 hours

from 40.9 hours in July. The ISM production index rose to 61.0 in August from

60.6 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to softer in the

month after a 1.6% July gain, as cooler weather reduced electricity use, while

mining production is forecast to weaken after rising in the previous four

months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.8% from 76.7% in July.

     At 0945ET, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio will give the concluding

remarks at an ECB Workshop "Monetary Policy in non-Standard Times", in

Frankfurt.

     The US July business inventories, BLS state employment data and the

September University of Michigan Sentiment Index will be published at 1000eT.

     Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2% in July, in line with an MNI

calculation. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.2% in the month,

while wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and the advance report pointed to a 0.2%

decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a

0.2% increase for business inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were up

0.3% and wholesale sales fell 0.1%, while retail trade sales rose 0.6% in the

advance retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.3% gain in

business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales number.

     The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall to 96.0 in

early September from 96.8 in August, with the impact of Hurricane Harvey seen in

the data.

     Late on, at 1100ET, the St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast will be released,

followed by the NY Fed GDP Nowcast at 1115ET.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com