MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Recovers To Retest July High At 118-097

*RES 4: 118-285 Median line off Mar & May lows

*RES 3: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 118-140/145 Jun 26 high, 76.4% of 118-247/117-132

*RES 1: 118-095/097 Jul 24, Jul 21 highs

*PRICE: 118-065 @0937GMT

*SUP 1: 118-010/030 Aug 1 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: 117-302 Jul 28 low

*SUP 3: 117-265/270 Jul 25 low, initial rally high Jul 13

*SUP 4: 117-235 Jul 13 low

*COMMENTARY* 117-295 support remained intact, having survived a 117-302 pullback

last Friday. The subsequent recovery has now found the wherewithal for a move

back above 118-072, thereby bringing the late July highs at 118-095/118-097 back

into the equation. Has faltered here so far but a successful break will then

have 118-140/118-145 as the remaining bar to the Jun 14 high at 118-247. Support

rises with it, 118-030/118-010 now in front of the still important 117-302.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Has 126-115/120 Back In Sight As Recovery Continues

*RES 4: 126-290 Jun 26 high

*RES 3: 126-215 76.4% Fibo of 127-080/124-255

*RES 2: 126-115/120 Jun 19 low, Jul 21, 24 highs

*RES 1: 126-085 Aug 2 high

*PRICE: 126-035 @0941GMT

*SUP 1: 125-250/260 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 125-215 Aug 1 low

*SUP 3: 125-155 Jul 25 low

*SUP 4: 125-125/130 Congestion area Jul 12-13

*COMMENTARY* Gradually chipping away at resistance, most latterly above 126-065,

as we look to retest the key 126-115/126-120 region. A high of 126-085 now,

before again some near term overbought conditions have come into play. In this

respect, look to 125-250/260 and then Tuesday's 125-215 low to form support.

Back below the latter will disappoint now. Directly above 126-120 and the next

main attraction becomes the 76.4% Fibo level at 126-215.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Small 'Doji' Candle Close Is A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: 155-29 76.4% Fibo of 157-08/151-18 

*RES 3: 155-02 61.8% of 157-08/151-18, 1% volatility band 

*RES 2: 154-31 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: 154-18 Aug 2 high

*PRICE: 154-04 @0952GMT

*SUP 1: 153-16/17 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 152-03/09 Jul 27, 28, Aug 1 lows

*SUP 3: 152-21 Jul 31 low

*SUP 4: 151-28 Jul 13 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Have now seen a break above 154-11 which is encouraging but the

near term concern is the presence of a small 'Doji' candle close on Wednesday.

This can be potentially damaging but will have to await today's price action for

confirmation. Meanwhile, 154-18/154-31 provides resistance to a higher 155-02

rise where dual resistance awaits. Support on the rise, 153-16/153-17 initially

but the 152-03/152-09 area still provides a stronger base below.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.515 Still Provides Key Near Term Support

*RES 4: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 2: 98.580/590 Congestion lows May 19-Jun 8, Jun 16 high

*RES 1: 98.560/565 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.550 @0954GMT

*SUP 1: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 50% Fibo retrace level at 98.495 earlier

last month, a recovery has reached the base of the 98.580-98.590 resistance

area. As a result, has become overbought in the near term and now giving back

some of those gains. In this respect, look to 98.515 for support and protection

against a return of the previous downtrend and 98.495 again. Resistance now from

98.560-98.565 ahead of 98.580-98.590 again.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]