MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Support Line Breaks, 118-010 Now Looks Key Support

*RES 4: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: 118-220 Aug 11 high

*RES 2: 118-182 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 1: 118-150/157 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 118-062 @1019GMT

*SUP 1: 118-050 61.8% Fibo of 117-265/118-220

*SUP 2: 118-035 Aug 4 low

*SUP 3: 118-010 76.4% Fibo of 117-265/118-220, Aug 1 low

*SUP 4: 117-265 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Suffering the fallout from the failed attempt to reach the Jun 14

high at 118-247. A peak of 118-220 last Friday has been followed by a fall below

the 7 week rising support line at 118-087 by time today. This now leaves the

118-050/118-035 region as next support, ahead of what currently looks a stronger

level at 118-010. As a consequence, resistance also falls, 118-150/118-182 now

in the way of any upside progress.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-060 Break Initiates Correction

*RES 4: 127-080 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: 126-280/290 Aug 11, Jun 26 highs

*RES 2: 126-220 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 1: 126-140 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 126-005 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: 125-290 Aug 4, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 2: 125-260 76.4% Fibo of 125-155/126-280

*SUP 3: 125-155 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows

*SUP 4: 125-085/090 Jul 13 low, 76.4% of 124-255/126-280

*COMMENTARY* Falling back after last week's challenge to the Jun 26 high at

126-290. Today's drop below 126-060 has broken the 3 week support line and has

initiated a correction. This initially of gains from the late July lows at

126-155, with 125-290/125-260 as next supports. Any lower and have to consider a

deeper correction from the early July low at 124-255. Meanwhile, resistance

initially from 126-140 and then 126-220.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17)  Falls After 'Doji' Close And 76.4% Fibo Level Caps

*RES 4: 156-07 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 155-29 76.4% Fibo of 157-08/151-18, Aug 11 high 

*RES 2: 155-14 Aug 14 high 

*RES 1: 154-23 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 153-31 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*SUP 2: 153-16/17 Jul 31 high, Aug 2, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 3: 153-00 76.4% Fibo of 152-03/155-29

*SUP 4: 152-03 Jul 27, Jul 28 lows

*COMMENTARY* The rally found fresh impetus on Friday for a break above the

previously troublesome 155-10 level. Was however, unable to extend the rise

through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 155-29 and the subsequent fall and

'Doji' candle close remains a concern here. As a consequence, the loss of the

154-03/154-13 area has highlighted this, 153-16/17 now the protection against a

deeper 153-00/152-03 return. Resistance, initially from 154-23 and then 155-14.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Rally Fails To Trouble 98.580-98.590 Resistance

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 98.580/590 Jul 14, Jun 16 highs

*PRICE: 98.540 @1042GMT

*SUP 1: 98.535/545 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally saw some near term movement with the rally back above

98.560-98.565 resistance. Now looking to see if this bounce has the impetus to

trouble the next 98.580-98.590 area. Through the latter needed before we reach

more important levels between 98.610-98.630. As a result, nearest support has

risen to 98.535-98.545, with the 98.515 level still seen as key on the downside.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]