MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bounces After Hold Above 61.8% Fibo Level

*RES 4: 118-310/320 Apr 17, May 18 highs

*RES 3: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 118-220 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: 118-192/195 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 118-182 @1041GMT

*SUP 1: 118-125 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 118-090/105 Initial rally high Aug 16, Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 118-050/057 61.8% of 117-265/118-220, Aug 16 low

*SUP 4: 118-010 76.4% Fibo of 117-265/118-220, Aug 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Recovery after the test towards the 61.8% Fibo retrace at 118-050

on Wednesday, has seen a slight move above 118-182 resistance. Will need to

sustain a break through here before the near term bias can switch to higher

again and a renewed challenge to 118-220/118-247. In the meantime, look to

118-125/118-090 for support, loss of the latter would spoil recent recovery and

put that 118-050 level back under pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Again The 126-280/126-090 Region Bars The Way Higher

*RES 4: 127-235 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 127-080 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 127-020 4 week bull channel top projection

*RES 1: 126-280/290 Aug 11, Jun 26 highs

*PRICE: 126-245 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: 126-140 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 126-110 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 126-060 Initial recovery high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: 125-320 Aug 16 low

*COMMENTARY* The 125-290/125-260 area managed to remain unscathed, as the

earlier 125-320 level provided support on Wednesday. The subsequent recovery has

been impressive already testing back towards the month's and the Jun 26 highs at

126-280/126-290. Will have to find the further strength for a sustained break

above here however, before the confidence in the upside will be restored and the

chance of a further 127-020/127-080 rise. Support rises to 126-140/126-110.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17)  Recovery Needs To Sustain 155-29/156-18 Break

*RES 4: 158-04 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 157-27 38.2% Fibo of 177-11/145-26

*RES 2: 157-08 Jun 26 high 

*RES 1: 156-18 1% volatility band

*PRICE: 155-26 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: 155-06/07 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 154-18 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 154-10 Initial rally high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from above the 153-16/153-17 area on Wednesday and

the subsequent recovery has been impressive, moving above the key 155-29 level

in the process. This now removes any lingering threat from the 'Doji' candle

close last Friday. That said, will face resistance from the upper 1% volatility

band at 156-18 next and a sustained break here is needed, before the Jun 26 high

at 157-08 and the longer term Fibo retrace at 157-27 come into view. 

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.580-98.590 Resistance Again The Interest Here

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 98.580/590 Jul 14, Jun 16 highs

*PRICE: 98.570 @1112GMT

*SUP 1: 98.535/545 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally saw some near term movement with the rally back above

98.560-98.565 resistance last week. Now looking to see if this bounce has the

impetus to trouble the next 98.580-98.590 area. Through the latter needed before

we reach more important levels between 98.610-98.630. As a result, nearest

support has risen to 98.535-98.545, with the 98.515 level still seen as key on

the downside.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]