MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Attempting Higher But 118-220/118-247 Still Caps

*RES 4: 118-310/320 Apr 17, May 18 highs

*RES 3: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 118-220/227 Aug 11, Aug 18 highs

*RES 1: 118-205 Aug 21 high

*PRICE: 118-160 @0956GMT

*SUP 1: 118-090/105 7 week rising support line, Aug 17 low

*SUP 2: 118-052/057 61.8% of 117-265/118-227, Aug 16 low

*SUP 3: 118-010/012 Aug 1 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-265/118-227

*SUP 4: 117-265 Jul 25 low

*COMMENTARY* Another attempt to the topside on Friday, pulling up in the midst

of the next 118-220/118-247 resistance area. Still need to sustain a break

through here before the overall bias can switch to higher again and a renewed

challenge to the Apr/May highs at 118-310/118-320. In the meantime, look to

118-105/118-090 for support, loss of the latter would spoil the look of the

recent recovery and put the 118-057/118-052 region back under pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Rally Falters Around 5 Week Channel Top

*RES 4: 127-275 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 127-080 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 127-015/045 Aug 18 high, 5 week bull channel top 

*RES 1: 126-290/297 Aug 21 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 126-215 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: 126-165/180 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 126-110 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 126-060 Initial recovery high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: 126-045 5 week bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* The 125-290/125-260 area managed to remain unscathed, as the

earlier 125-320 level provided support last Wednesday. The subsequent recovery

has broken above the month's and the Jun 26 highs at 126-280/126-290. Will have

to find the further strength for a sustained break above here however, before

the confidence in the upside will be restored and the chance of a further

127-045/127-080 rise. Support rises to 126-180/126-110.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17)  Rally Still Below 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 158-15 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 157-27 38.2% Fibo of 177-11/145-26

*RES 2: 157-08 Jun 26 high 

*RES 1: 156-12/30 Aug 18 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: 155-29 @1003GMT

*SUP 1: 155-06 Aug 16 high, now support

*SUP 2: 154-18 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 154-10 Initial rally high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from above the 153-16/153-17 area last Wednesday and

the subsequent recovery has been impressive, moving above the key 155-29 level

in the process. This now removes any lingering threat from the 'Doji' candle

close on Aug 11. That said, will face resistance from the upper 1% volatility

band at 156-30 next and a sustained break here is needed, before the Jun 26 high

at 157-08 and the longer term Fibo retrace at 157-27 come into view.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.580-98.590 Resistance Again The Interest Here

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 98.580/590 Jul 14, Jun 16 highs

*PRICE: 98.565 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: 98.535/545 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally saw some near term movement with the rally back above

98.560-98.565 resistance earlier this month. Now looking to see if this bounce

has the impetus to trouble the next 98.580-98.590 area. Through the latter

needed before we reach more important levels between 98.610-98.630. As a result,

nearest support has risen to 98.535-98.545, with the 98.515 level still seen as

key on the downside.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]