MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 117-047/117-072 Break Needed To Provide Some Respite

*RES 4: 117-162 Initial low Oct 16, now resistance

*RES 3: 117-137 Oct 19 high

*RES 2: 117-072 Oct 24 high

*RES 1: 117-037/047 Oct 6 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 117-007 @1016GMT

*SUP 1: 116-265 Oct 25 low

*SUP 2: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*SUP 4: 116-027 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continued pressure has seen both the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

117-020 and the Mar 17 low at 116-295 give way. A low of 116-265 on Wednesday,

before some near term oversold conditions allowed a bounce. This has resulted in

a small 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart, which may provide some near term

respite, especially on a break back above 117-047/117-072. Otherwise a loss of

116-265 will negate this opportunity and resume downside focus.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-265/125-015 The Bar To Continued Recovery 

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-160 Oct 19 high

*RES 2: 125-005/015 Oct 24 high, Oct 18 low

*RES 1: 124-265 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-195 @1027GMT

*SUP 1: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 2: 123-255 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*SUP 4: 123-115 Mar 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued Wednesday, resulting in a challenge to

the Mar 29 low at 124-065. That push lower resulted in some near term oversold

conditions and the scope for some recovery. This however, will need to break

back above 124-265/125-015 before any real upside impetus will be forthcoming

and allow some greater correction of recent losses from the Oct 13 high at

125-255. Loss of 124-060 will disappoint and open up 124-255/125-235 next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Decline Held Above 2017 Bull Channel Base Projection

*RES 4: 153-10 Oct 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 152-20/25 Oct 23 high, Oct 18 low

*RES 2: 152-07/10 Congestion area Oct 20-24

*RES 1: 151-25 Oct 20 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 151-11 @1052GMT

*SUP 1: 150-13/14 2017 bull channel base proj'n, Oct 25 low

*SUP 2: 149-20 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 4: 147-14/15 Mar 16-17 lows

*COMMENTARY* The downside push continued Wednesday, the loss of the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at 150-18, resulting in a test to just above the next downside

targets, the 2017 bull channel base projection at 150-13 and the May 11 low at

150-07. As a result, became oversold near term but a move back above the Oct 20

low at 151-25 and then the 152-07/152-10 congestion area is needed, before the

immediate downside bias is reduced.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.510-98.525 In The Way Of Any Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.495 @1058GMT

*SUP 1: 98.470 Apr 24, Oct 6 lows

*SUP 2: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 98.495 support earlier in the month, the 98.470 level

has since provided some interim support and protection to the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at 98.455. That said, any recovery will need to deal firstly with the Oct

13 high at 98.510 and then more importantly the dual highs at 98.525. Through

here the minimum requirement to provide some respite and allow some greater

correction of the losses seen since the Sep 8 high at 98.635. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]