MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 116-315/116-290 Supports Further Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: 117-207 Oct 13 high, 38.2% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 3: 117-137 Oct 19 high

*RES 2: 117-102 Oct 16 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 117-097 Oct 30 high

*PRICE: 117-037 @1122GMT

*SUP 1: 116-290/315 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 116-252 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued pressure saw both the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 117-020

and the Mar 17 low at 116-295 give way last week. A low of 116-252 on Friday,

after the topside was curtailed by the 117-037 level on Thursday. Has

subsequently rallied on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The move

back above that 117-037 level is encouraging. A hold above 116-315/116-290 would

also help any recovery, which can challenge 117-102/117-137 next.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-230/124-130 Becomes Near Term Support

*RES 4: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 3: 125-160 Oct 19 high

*RES 2: 125-135 76.4% Fibo of 125-255/124-060

*RES 1: 125-035/055 Oct 31 high, hourly base Oct 19

*PRICE: 124-255 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: 124-230/235 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 124-130 Minor congestion area Oct 27

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* Downside continued last week, resulting in a challenge to the Mar

29 low at 124-065. That push lower resulted in some oversold conditions and the

scope for some recovery. This has now broken back above 125-005/125-015 which

allows some greater correction of recent losses from the Oct 13 high at 125-255.

In this respect, 125-055/125-135 then possible. In the meantime, 124-230 is

initial support, while 124-130 protects 124-065/124-060 again.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 151-25 Break Sees Scope For 152-20/153-11 Recovery

*RES 4: 154-05/10 Oct 13 high, 50% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 153-15 1% volatility band

*RES 2: 153-10/11 Oct 17 low, 38.2% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 1: 152-20/25 Oct 23 high, Oct 18 low

*PRICE: 152-05 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 151-22 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 150-27 Hourly congestion area  Oct 25-26

*SUP 3: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 4: 148-24/29 76.4% of 145-26/158-09, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Following the failure to reclaim levels above 151-25 last week, the

downside push continued, most latterly in a dip to 150-10 on Friday, just below

the 2017 bull channel base projection but for the time being still above the May

11 low at 150-07. Will need to hold here to avoid the eventuality of a deeper

fall towards the lower 2% volatility band and perhaps the 76.4% Fibo level at

148-24. Back above 151-25 has helped, 152-25/153-11 the next bar to progress.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.510-98.525 Still In The Way Of Any Recovery

Hopes

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.485 @1132GMT

*SUP 1: 98.470 Apr 24, Oct 6 lows

*SUP 2: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 98.495 support earlier in the month, the 98.470 level

has since provided some interim support and protection to the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at 98.455. That said, any recovery will need to deal firstly with the Oct

13 high at 98.510 and then more importantly the dual highs at 98.525. Through

here the minimum requirement to provide some respite and allow some greater

correction of the losses seen since the Sep 8 high at 98.635.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]