MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Downside Pressure Resumes

*RES 4: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*RES 3: 117-057/082 Nov 6, Nov 7 lows, Nov 9 high

*RES 2: 117-015 Nov 20 high

*RES 1: 116-285/305 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-225 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 2: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*SUP 3: 115-285 Feb 2011 low (Continuation Chart)

*SUP 4: 115-237 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline has continued into this week, trying to maintain a

break below the Oct 27 low at 116-252. A sustained loss here will swing the

overall bias back to the downside and focus again on the Mar 10 low at 116-155.

In the interim, any recovery will now meet resistance from 116-285/116-305 but

need to surpass 117-015, before the chances of a near term recovery improve.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 124-155 Holds But 125-080 Still Caps Recovery

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 2: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 1: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*PRICE: 124-210 @1136GMT

*SUP 1: 124-190 Nov 21 low

*SUP 2: 124-155/160 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26, Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-155 support level withstood pressure last week and with

near term conditions still oversold, there is encouragement for some recovery.

How much will be gauged by the reaction to firstly 125-080 resistance and then

the 125-150/125-195 region. Above the latter would trigger a better correction

of losses from the Sep 8 high at 127-285. Meanwhile 124-190 now protects that

still key 124-155 level.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Rally Falters Ahead Of 154-26 Resistance

*RES 4: 156-20 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 156-13 76.4% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 2: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 1: 154-22/26 Nov 21, Nov 8 highs

*PRICE: 153-27 @1142GMT

*SUP 1: 153-03 Nov 16 low

*SUP 2: 152-18 Hourly base Nov 13

*SUP 3: 152-01 Nov 12 low

*SUP 4: 151-11 Oct 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 152-01 last week

and the recovery has continued into this. Monday's move above 154-05/154-10, if

it can be sustained, is encouraging, a further move through 154-26, then has the

next resistance of consequence, between 155-04/155-08 within it's reach. Support

is also on the rise, the Nov 16 low at 153-03 should now hold, if the rally is

to continue and avoid a deeper 152-18 setback.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Support At 98.455 Remains Under

Pressure

*RES 4: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 2: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*RES 1: 98.485/495 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.450 @1149GMT

*SUP 1: 98.445 Nov 21 low

*SUP 2: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.335 Mar 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement this month, 98.470 support has given way, allowing

the focus to switch to 98.455. This the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the 98.335-98.655

rally, seen between March and May earlier this year. This currently under

pressure, a low of 98.445 on Tuesday, sustained break will see potential for a

deeper 98.410 fall next. Resistance in the meantime, falls slightly to

98.485-98.495 but it will still take a move back above 98.510 to alter things. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]