MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Tests Toward 8 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 116-282 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 116-235/252 3 month falling res line, Nov 29 high

*RES 2: 116-227 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: 116-167/185 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-107 @1059GMT

*SUP 1: 116-052 Dec 4 low

*SUP 2: 116-042 8 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-230 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-127 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, losing support from the Nov 21 low

at 116-145 in the process. A low of 116-052 on Monday before bouncing. A

sustained loss of 116-145 will swing the overall bias back to the downside and

focus on two bear channel base projections between 116-042 and 115-230.

Resistance meanwhile from 116-167/185 and then more importantly 116-227/116-252.

Require back through here before things can improve.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Downside Pressure Resumes After Brief 124-275 Rise

*RES 4: 125-065 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: 124-300/320 8 week falling res line, Nov 28 high

*RES 2: 124-275 Dec 1, Nov 29 highs

*RES 1: 124-190/200 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-095 @1104GMT

*SUP 1: 123-295 Nov 30 low

*SUP 2: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 3: 123-140 8 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 123-085 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-050/124-065 support area gave way last Thursday, a low

of 123-295 before recovering on the back of some near term oversold conditions.

This culminated in a return to the Nov 29 high at 124-275, before once again

falling back towards that 123-295 low again. This is the protection to the late

October lows at 123-270 and the 8 week bear channel base projection at 123-140.

Meanwhile, 124-190/124-200 becomes near term resistance.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovering After A Test Towards 150-30 Support

*RES 4: 154-23/26 76.4% of 156-14/149-07, November highs

*RES 3: 154-06/14 Dec 1 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: 153-24 Nov 28 high

*RES 1: 153-06 Dec 4 high

*PRICE: 152-31 @1111GMT

*SUP 1: 152-02 Dec 4 low

*SUP 2: 151-24 Nov 29 low

*SUP 3: 151-00 Nov 30 low

*SUP 4: 150-30 Nov 10, 13 lows, 61.8% of 149-07/153-24

*COMMENTARY* A brief break above 153-24 last Friday, a high of 154-06 before

retreating swiftly again to find a base at 152-02. Will now need to regain

levels back above 153-06 and then once again 153-24, before any fresh upside

confidence will appear for another tilt at 154-06/154-26. Below 152-02 and the

Nov 29 low at 151-24 is the protection to 151-00 and then the still key 150-30

level.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Squeezing Lower 98.240 Ahead Of Dual 98.200

Support 

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.295/305 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.250 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: 98.240 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 3: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 4: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level gave way. Has now lost support from the previous Mar 16 base at

98.260. Some overshoot to 98.240 can be allowed but any lower and the dual

support from 98.200 comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial

move back above 98.295-98.305 is needed before thoughts can turn to a better

98.325-98.365 recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]