MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Continues After Failure Below 115-222 

*RES 4: 116-002 Jan 5 high

*RES 3: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 115-222 Jan 11 high

*RES 1: 115-145/155 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 115-077 @1114GMT

*SUP 1: 115-060 Jan 18 low

*SUP 2: 115-002 9 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 114-270 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-252 61.8% Fibo of 108-152/124-320

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall, last Friday's 115-117 low the latest support

to give way. A low of 115-060 on Thursday so far, as we make our way towards the

first of two channel base projections, the 9 week at 115-002. The second coming

in at the slightly lower 114-270 level. Both of these currently protecting the

key 61.8% Fibo retrace at 114-252. In the interim, resistance from

115-145/115-155 is the first obstacle to cross, 115-222 higher.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Threatening 5 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 123-110/125 5 week falling res'tce line, Dec 21 low 

*RES 3: 123-050 Jan 11, Jan 16 highs

*RES 2: 122-300 Congestion area Jan 10-16

*RES 1: 122-200/225 Jan 12, Jan 10 lows

*PRICE: 122-130 @1129GMT

*SUP 1: 122-090/115 Intraday low, 5 week bear channel base

*SUP 2: 122-070 Sep 2013 low

*SUP 3: 121-252 76.4% Fibo of 117-180/135-155

*SUP 4: 121-225 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline has now moved below the Dec 2016 base at 122-145 and

also the 5 week bear channel base at 122-115. A sustained break below here and

the Sep 2013 lows at 122-070 then come into view next. In the meantime, nearest

resistance falls to 122-200/122-300 but once again it is the slightly higher

123-050 region that holds the key to any real recovery hopes. Beneath 122-070

and not much until the Fibo support at 121-252.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Heads For Test Of 76.4% Fibo Level

*RES 4: 151-06/12 Jan 17 high, Jan 2 low

*RES 3: 150-20 Congestion highs Jan 11-15

*RES 2: 150-10 Jan 15, 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 149-17 Jan 11, Jan 12 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 149-03 @1144GMT

*SUP 1: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 2: 147-25 5 week bear channel base projection 

*SUP 3: 147-10 2% vol band, 5 month bear channel base proj'n

*SUP 4: 146-23 Mar 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken below 149-17 support, heading straight for a look at the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at 148-24. Any lower than this and two bear channel

base projections are next, the 5 week at 147-25 and the 5 month at 147-10, where

the lower 2% volatility band also resides today. As a result, nearest resistance

comes from two former sets of lows, at 149-17 and then 150-10. It is the

150-10/150-20 area that rallies need to break for any chance of respite.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Continues To Slip Lower

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.180 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.140 @1147GMT

*SUP 1: 98.130 Jan 18, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165 last Friday. As a result of this, there

is the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident

ahead of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 held the decline on

Tuesday. Nearest resistance falls to 98.180, back above would provide some

respite but that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]