MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Continues, Heading Towards 61.8% Fibo Level 

*RES 4: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 115-222 Jan 11 high

*RES 2: 115-200 Jan 16 high

*RES 1: 115-095/117 Hourly resistance, Jan 12 low

*PRICE: 115-032 @1148GMT

*SUP 1: 115-020 Jan 19 low

*SUP 2: 114-312 9 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 114-255 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-252 61.8% Fibo of 108-152/124-320

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall, the latest low at 115-020 last Friday, as we

make our way towards the first of two channel base projections, the 9 week at

114-312. The second coming in at the slightly lower 114-255 level, basically in

line with the next key Fibo retrace level, the 61.8% at 114-252. In the interim,

resistance from 115-095/115-117 is now the first obstacle to cross,

115-200/115-222 higher.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Hits 8 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 123-100/125 6 week falling res'tce line, Dec 21 low 

*RES 3: 123-050 Jan 11, Jan 16 highs

*RES 2: 122-285/300 Congestion area Jan 10-16

*RES 1: 122-160/200 Jan 19 high, Jan 12 low 

*PRICE: 122-075 @1200GMT

*SUP 1: 122-015 Jan 19 low

*SUP 2: 121-250 76.4% Fibo of 117-180/135-155

*SUP 3: 121-170 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 121-095 5 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Following last week's move below the Dec 2016 base at 122-145, the

Sep 2013 lows at 122-070 have also subsequently given way. A low of 122-015 so

far, basically in line with the 8 week bear channel base projection. In the

meantime, nearest resistance falls to 122-160/122-200 but it is still the higher

123-050 region that holds the key to any real recovery hopes. Beneath 122-015

and the key 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 121-250 comes into view.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 76.4% Fibo Level Gives Way

*RES 4: 151-06/12 Jan 17 high, Jan 2 low

*RES 3: 150-20 Congestion highs Jan 11-15

*RES 2: 150-10 Jan 15, 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 149-12/17 Jan 19 high, Jan 11, Jan 12 lows

*PRICE: 148-27 @1209GMT

*SUP 1: 148-12 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 147-21 6 week bear channel base projection 

*SUP 3: 147-00/08 2% vol band, 5 month bear channel base 

*SUP 4: 146-23 Mar 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 149-17 support on Friday, has now  broken below the key

76.4% Fibo retrace level at 148-24. Beneath here and two bear channel base

projections are next, the 6 week at 147-21 and the 5 month at 147-08, just above

the lower 2% volatility band at 147-00 today. As a result, nearest resistance

comes from 149-12 and then two former sets of lows, at 149-17 and then 150-10.

It is 150-10/150-20 that rallies need to break for any chance of respite.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Continues To Slip Lower

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.180 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.150 @1212GMT

*SUP 1: 98.130 Jan 18, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result of this, there is the

chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of

the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 held the decline last week.

Nearest resistance falls to 98.180, back above would provide some respite but

that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]