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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Moves Toward 4 Month Bear Channel Base 
*RES 4: 115-142 Hourly high Jan 17
*RES 3: 115-092 Jan 23 high
*RES 2: 115-045 Hourly congestion area Jan 24-26
*RES 1: 114-320 Jan 21 low, now resistance
*PRICE: 114-297 @1010GMT
*SUP 1: 114-202/217 4 month bear channel base, Jan 29 low
*SUP 2: 114-100 Apr 12 2010 low
*SUP 3: 113-305 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low
*COMMENTARY* The descent continued, most latterly through both the 10 week bear
channel base and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level. A low of 114-217 seen on Monday.
Next up is the 4 month bear channel base projection, at 114-202 by time today.
Consequently, resistance also falls, the Jan 21 low at 114-230 now acting as an
initial bar to gains, the  115-045/115-092 region higher. Beneath 114-202 and
the Apr 12 2010 low at 114-100 protects the lower 1% volatility band.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Continues Lower, Finding Some Support From 121-170
*RES 4: 123-015 Jan 12 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 122-175 Jan 23 high
*RES 2: 122-105 Congestion area Jan 23-26
*RES 1: 122-015 Jan 21 low, now resistance 
*PRICE: 121-280 @1016GMT
*SUP 1: 121-170 Jan 29 low
*SUP 2: 121-005 5 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: 120-310 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to tumble, following on from the break below the Sep
2013 low at 122-070 earlier in the month. The 8 week channel base has now given
way, a low of 121-170 so far, before some oversold hourly conditions have come
to the near term rescue. Resistance comes from the Jan 21 low at 122-015 but
likely requires a move back above 122-105 before any real upside interest will
appear. Below 121-170 and the 5 month bear channel base comes into view next.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Volatility Band Protects Channel Bases
*RES 4: 150-10 Jan 15, Jan 16 lows, now resistance
*RES 3: 149-16/22 Jan 25, Jan 23 highs
*RES 2: 149-03 Jan 10 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 148-20/23 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 148-05 @1021GMT
*SUP 1: 147-14 Jan 29 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: 146-26 7 week & 5 month bear channel base projection 
*SUP 3: 146-23 Mar 14 low
*SUP 4: 145-30 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from both 149-17 and the key key 76.4% Fibo retrace
level at 148-24 over the last couple of weeks. Beneath here and the lower 1%
volatility band at 147-14 by time today, is the next area of support, ahead of
the 7 week and 5 month bear channel base projections, which coincide at 146-26
today. Meanwhile, 148-20/148-23 and then more significantly 149-03 provide
resistance to any recovery efforts.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.130 Gives Way On Approach To 98.080 Support
*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs
*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high
*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high
*RES 1: 98.160 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.125 @1028GMT
*SUP 1: 98.115 Jan 29 low
*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low
*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low
*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240
*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been
followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result, there is the chance for a
potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of the December
2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 has given way, Monday's 98.115 low now the
protection to 98.080. Nearest resistance falls to 98.160, back above would
provide some respite but that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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