MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 114-155 Support Protects Against 114-092 Return

*RES 4: 115-212/227 Feb 6,Jan 11 highs, 61.8% 116-190/114-092

*RES 3: 115-117 Jan 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 115-090 Jan 24 high

*RES 1: 114-287/290 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 114-207 @1204GMT

*SUP 1: 114-155 Hourly base Feb 5, Feb 7 low

*SUP 2: 114-092 Feb 2 low

*SUP 3: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*SUP 4: 113-192 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Pressure has returned to the downside, following this week's short

lived rally back to 115-212. Now looking at support from 114-155 as the near

term protection against a return to this month's earlier 114-092 low. Resistance

as a consequence falls to 114-287/114-290, back above would help but still has

115-090/1115-117 to deal with above, before the topside is favoured again. Below

114-092 and look to the April 2010 low at 113-280 next.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns To The Downside After 122-190 Caps

*RES 4: 123-050 Jan 16 high

*RES 3: 122-190/200 Feb 6 high, Jan 12 low

*RES 2: 122-055 Hourly high Feb 6

*RES 1: 121-195 Feb 7 high

*PRICE: 120-290 @1220GMT

*SUP 1: 120-260 6 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: 120-240 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 3: 120-180 Feb 5 low

*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155

*COMMENTARY* Found some support after briefly breaking below the 6 year bear

channel base but holding above the lower 1% volatility band and also the 61.8%

Fibo retrace level at 120-115. The bounce has however been short lived so far,

Tuesday's 122-190 high proving difficult to sustain and subsequent downside

pressure has resumed, 122-260/122-240 now the protection against a 120-180

return and perhaps the 61.8% Fibo level at 120-115. Resistance 121-195/122-055.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus Returns To 144-03/144-01 Lows

*RES 4: 148-07/11 Jan 24 low, Jan 30 high

*RES 3: 147-23 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: 147-03/04 Jan 31, Jan 30 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 145-17/27 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 144-07 @1235GMT

*SUP 1: 144-01/03 Intraday, Feb 5, Feb 23 2015 lows

*SUP 2: 143-25 Feb 16 2015 lows

*SUP 3: 143-18 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: 142-11 Dec 22 2014 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside extended on Monday, breaking below the Mar low at 145-26

and also briefly the lower 2% volatility band, at 144-19 at the time. The

subsequent rally running out of steam at 147-23 on Tuesday and has been followed

by another fall. Lows of 144-01/144-03 so far, equalling the similar low from

Feb 23 2015. Any lower and the Feb 16 2015 low at 143-25 is next, ahead of that

2% band at 143-18 today. Resistance 145-17/145-27 with 147-03/147-04 above.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.050-98.055 Now The Near Term Support Brake

*RES 4: 98.175 Jan 4 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.145 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: 98.130 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 98.100 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.065 @1245GMT

*SUP 1: 98.050/055 Intraday, Nov 2015 lows

*SUP 2: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*SUP 3: 97.960 1.618 swing of 98.200-98.585

*SUP 4: 97.935 76.4% Fibo of 97.530-99.240

*COMMENTARY* The decline has extended over the last couple of days, following

the short lived recovery to 98.145 on Tuesday. The subsequent slip below

98.100-98-080 support, now sees the 98.055-98.050 area as the next guide to

direction. Lower and we start on our way to 97.995, a 38.2% Fibo retrace level

of the 95.980-99.240 rise, seen over the last 5 years. In the meantime,

98.100-98.130 provides the near term bar to any recovery hopes. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]