MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Fresh Fall Edges Closer To Key 113-280 Support

*RES 4: 114-247 Feb 14 high

*RES 3: 114-200 Congestion area Feb 7-Feb 14

*RES 2: 114-155 Feb 12 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 114-097/117 Feb 15 high, Feb 8 low

*PRICE: 114-080 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 113-315 Feb 15 low

*SUP 2: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*SUP 3: 113-265 Aug 3 2009 low

*SUP 4: 113-137 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Pressure returned to the downside, following last week's short

lived rally back to 115-212. Support from 114-155 and then 114-092 giving way on

Wednesday, as we edge ever closer to the key long term support from April 2010

at 113-280. Resistance as a consequence falls to 114-097/114-117  but likely

needs to see a move back above the congested 114-200 region, before the near

term negative bias is reduced.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 120-010 Protects The Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 121-075 Feb 14 high

*RES 3: 120-300 Hourly low Feb 14, now resistance  

*RES 2: 120-245 Hourly low Feb 12, now resistance

*RES 1: 120-180 Feb 5 low, Feb 15 high

*PRICE: 120-155 @1139GMT

*SUP 1: 120-010 Feb 15 low, Mar 2008 high

*SUP 2: 119-235 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 119-115 Sep 2008 high, now support

*SUP 4: 118-315 Median line off 2012 highs

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall for most of the week, most latterly through the

month's previous 120-180/120-170 lows. A low of 120-010 on Thursday, in line

with the March 2008 high. Any lower and the 1% volatility band, at 119-235 by

time today, becomes the next downside attraction. In the interim, nearest

resistance comes from those previous lows but will likely currently need a move

back above 120-245/120-300, before near term downside bias is slowed.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Meets 145-14/146-12 Resistance

*RES 4: 148-07/11 Jan 24 low, Jan 30 high

*RES 3: 147-23 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: 146-12 Feb 7 high

*RES 1: 145-09/14 Feb 14 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 144-04 @1143GMT

*SUP 1: 143-04 Feb 12-15 lows, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: 142-11 Dec 22 2014 low

*SUP 3: 141-22 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: 140-26 Dec 1 2014 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside tested 143-04 again on Thursday, as we still remain below

long term support from 144-03/143-25 behind. Next supports of note come from the

December 2014 lows between 142-11 and 140-26. Sandwiched in between is the lower

2% volatility band, at 141-22 by time today. Meanwhile, resistance

145-09/145-14, back through here will assist and allow a better 146-12 rise,

where next questions are asked.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 38.2% Fibo Level Gives, 97.960-97.935 Next

Targets

*RES 4: 98.130 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.100 Feb 4, Feb 5 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.075 Feb 8 high

*RES 1: 98.040 Feb 13 high

*PRICE: 97.975 @1145GMT

*SUP 1: 97.960 1.618 swing of 98.200-98.585, Apr 2013 high

*SUP 2: 97.935 76.4% Fibo of 97.530-99.240

*SUP 3: 97.910 Aug 10 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.845 Aug 3 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline has extended, following the short lived recovery to

98.145 last week. The subsequent slip below firstly 98.080 and then 98.050

support, has now been followed by the loss of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

97.995, this of the 95.980-99.240 rise, seen over the last 5 years. Now looking

to the swing target at 97.960 and perhaps the 76.4% retrace at 97.935. In the

meantime, 98.040-98.075 provides the near term bar to any recovery hopes. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]