MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 114-127/114-155 Remains In Way Of Further Gains

*RES 4: 115-012 Hourly high Feb 6

*RES 3: 114-270 Feb 9 high

*RES 2: 114-200 Feb 7 high

*RES 1: 114-127/155 Mar 2, Feb 14 highs

*PRICE: 114-040 @1143GMT

*SUP 1: 113-270 Congestion area Feb 15-Feb 28

*SUP 2: 113-222/232 Feb 20-Feb 28 lows

*SUP 3: 113-210 Feb 15 low

*SUP 4: 112-285 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Had gradually continued to recover since hitting a 113-210 low in

the middle of last month. Now facing resistance from 114-127/114-155, above

which would allow a higher 114-200/114-270 rise, as we claw back losses from the

Feb 6 high at 115-127. Meanwhile, nearest support from last Friday's 114-005 low

has been lost, leaving the congested 113-270 area and then 113-222 to face the

music. A loss of the latter would return overall bias/interest to the downside.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-230/120-240 In Way Of Increased Recovery

*RES 4: 122-030 Feb 6 high

*RES 3: 121-145 76.4% Fibo of 122-020/119-140

*RES 2: 121-010 Feb 9 high, 61.8% Fibo of 122-020/119-140

*RES 1: 120-230/240 Mar 1 high, 50% Fibo of 122-020/119-140

*PRICE: 120-095 @1146GMT

*SUP 1: 119-265 Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: 119-230 Congestion area Feb 15-Feb 28

*SUP 3: 119-140 Feb 15 low

*SUP 4: 118-290 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has stalled at 120-230, just beneath the 50% Fibo

retrace level of the preceding 122-020/119-140 fall, at 129-240. Will need the

added stimulus of a break above the latter, before considering the potential for

increased 121-010/121-145 gains. In the interim, support from Friday's 120-025

low has been lost, exposing the congested 119-230 region. Back below here would

caution and switch interest back to the downside.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 144-20/145-14 The Resistance To Increased Recovery

*RES 4: 146-21 Feb 6 high

*RES 3: 146-01 38.2% Fibo of 153-14/141-14

*RES 2: 145-14 76.4% Fibo of 146-21/141-14

*RES 1: 144-20 1% volatility band, Mar 2 high

*PRICE: 143-22 @1150GMT

*SUP 1: 142-21 Mar 5 low

*SUP 2: 142-04 Feb 27 low

*SUP 3: 141-25 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 141-14 Feb 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last month's 141-14 base has made it back to the

upper 1% volatility band, also at 144-20 by time today. Will require a further

rise through here however and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 145-14,

before any real belief in a continued rise will occur. Meantime, support from

last Friday's 143-05 low has been lost, so focus is now on 142.21 and then the

more important Feb 27 low at 142-04.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Pullback Has 97.745-97.725 Support

*RES 4: 97.910/915 Feb 7 high, 76.4% Fibo of 97.980-97.700  

*RES 3: 97.860/870 Feb 2 low, 61.8% Fibo of 97.980-97.700

*RES 2: 97.840 50% Fibo of 97.980-97.700

*RES 1: 97.820 Mar 2 high

*PRICE: 97.755 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 97.745/750 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 97.725 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: 97.700 Feb 28 low

*SUP 4: 97.640 Jul 13 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* The continuous decline finally came to a halt at 97.700 last week.

The subsequent recovery begins to correct losses, initially from the Feb 6 high

at 97.980. In this respect, following last Friday's bounce to 97.820, the next

Fibo retrace level higher is the 50% at 97.840. As a consequence support is also

on the move, from 97.750-97.745 initially and then the Mar 1 low at 97.725,

these now afford the downside some protection.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]