MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 114-040 Support Holds Last Weeks Challenge 

*RES 4: 114-245 Equality rise from 114-007 to 113-190/114-107

*RES 3: 114-227 61.8% Fibo of 115-127/113-190

*RES 2: 114-197/207 Mar 28, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: 114-157/160 Apr 4 high, Mar 29 high

*PRICE: 114-062 @1105GMT

*SUP 1: 114-040 Mar 19 high, Apr 5 low

*SUP 2: 114-007 Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: 113-272 Mar 9 low

*SUP 4: 113-190 Mar 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The end of last month saw a break of the recent range, rising

through 114-092/114-127, to a high of 114-207 on Apr 2. This ahead of next

resistance of note, the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 114-227, of the preceding

115-127/113-190 fall seen over the early part of the year. Meanwhile the 114-040

level came under pressure at the back end of last week but has survived all

challenges so far. Loss would put focus back on 114-007.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-145/121-170 Stays Out Of Reach For Now

*RES 4: 121-170 Equality rise from 120-110 to 119-220/120-280

*RES 3: 121-145 76.4% Fibo of 122-020/119-140

*RES 2: 121-120 Apr 2 high

*RES 1: 121-050/060 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 120-245 @1111GMT

*SUP 1: 120-165 Apr 5 low

*SUP 2: 120-110 Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: 120-065 Feb 16 high, now support

*SUP 4: 119-265 Mar 6, Mar 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* The move back above 120-230 on Mar 23 was the first inkling of an

upside revival which was carried on by the further rise through 120-280 at the

beginning of the month. A high of 121-120 just shy of the next resistance of

real note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 121-145. Meanwhile, support from

120-250/120-230 has been lost, 120-165 now protecting the lower 120-110 level,

which is anticipated to stay out of trouble, if gains are to continue.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18)  Recovers After Test Toward 144-25/144-20 Support

*RES 4: 148-04 Jan 10 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 147-14 1% volatility band, 50% of 153-14/141-14

*RES 2: 147-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 1: 146-28 Apr 11 high

*PRICE: 145-31 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 145-09 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 144-20/25 Mar 2 high, Apr 5 low

*SUP 3: 144-02/06 8 week rising support line, Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: 143-26 Feb 26 high, now support 

*COMMENTARY* Rally continued last week, breaking above the previous 146-24 high,

to reach 147-03 and a test to the upper 1% volatility band. Some near term

overbought conditions have since arisen, resulting in a loss of 145-22/145-11

but so far this has been held by 144-25/144-20 support, as ideally any pullbacks

are held above here, if recent upside momentum is to remain undisturbed.

Resistance from 146-28 now in front of a return to 147-03/147-14.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Pivotal 97.655 Support Goes, Watching 97.625 Next

*RES 4: 97.775 Mar 6 high

*RES 3: 97.740/745 Mar 27-28 highs, 6 month falling res line

*RES 2: 97.715 Apr 2 high

*RES 1: 97.685/690 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 97.635 @1143GMT

*SUP 1: 97.630/640 Mar 21 low

*SUP 2: 97.625 1.618 swing of 97.700-97.820

*SUP 3: 97.585 Jun 29 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall towards the end of last month, and have seen a

test to the next band of support between the July 2015 low at 97.640 and the

swing target of the recent 97.700-97.820 recovery, at the slightly lower 97.625

level. The subsequent rally moved back above 97.710, but has failed at the lower

end of 97.745-97.775 resistance. Below 97.625 and not much until 97.585 and then

the next swing target at 97.560.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]