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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 113-222/113-232 Now The Bar To Further Recovery Hopes
*RES 4: 113-312 Apr 17 high
*RES 3: 113-257/262 Apr 16 low, 1.618 proj'n tgt from 113-097
*RES 2: 113-222/232 Apr 18 low, May 4 high
*RES 1: 113-200/212 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 113-160 @0915GMT
*SUP 1: 113-097/120 May 2 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: 113-062 Apr 25 low
*SUP 3: 112-290 Equality fall from 114-207 to 115-127/113-210
*SUP 4: 112-210 Equality fall from 118-320 to 122-285/116-155
*COMMENTARY* The loss of pivotal 113-272 support returned the focus to the
downside last month, followed by a break of the key 113-180/113-170 area. A low
of 113-062 so far, this ahead of 112-290, the first of two equality fall
targets. As a consequence, resistance moves to 113-222/113-232, above the latter
would further reinforce the recent break back above the 3 week downtrend and
allow a higher 113-257/113-312 recovery.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-300/120-070 The Next Potential Upside Barrier
*RES 4: 120-115 1.618 projection target from 119-080
*RES 3: 120-070 Apr 16 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 119-300/315 Apr 20, May 4 highs
*RES 1: 119-265 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 119-210 @0923GMT
*SUP 1: 119-080/140 May 2 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: 118-310 Apr 25 low
*SUP 3: 118-150 Equality fall from 121-120 to 122-190/120-030
*SUP 4: 118-115 6 year median line
*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below congested 119-265/119-215 support. A
low of 118-310, as we so far head off a test towards the equality fall target at
118-150. Any lower and the 6 year median line at 118-115 becomes the next level
to watch. As a consequence, oversold in near term, above 119-155 has assisted
but any real recovery is beholden to a sustained 119-230 break. Above and
119-300/120-070 becomes the next target area. Support  119-140/119-080.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Recovery Unable As Yet To Sustain A 143-31 Break
*RES 4: 145-11 Broken 2 month support line
*RES 3: 145-01 Equality rise from 142-22 to 141-17/143-28
*RES 2: 144-25 Apr 5 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 144-08/12 May 4 high, hourly high Apr 19
*PRICE: 143-18 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: 143-02/05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 142-22 May 2 low
*SUP 3: 142-02 Hourly base Apr 26 
*SUP 4: 141-14/17 Feb 21, Apr 25 lows
*COMMENTARY* The fall from the Apr 17 recovery high at 146-02 saw a break
beneath the 2 month rising support line last month. The subsequent fall has also
surpassed the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 142-25, a low of 141-17 so far, just
above the next support from the Feb 21 low at 141-14. Oversold as a result, back
above 143-31 has assisted but need to sustain this to improve the situation
further. Nearest supports now 143-02/142-22.
US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Will Remain Under Pressure While 97.645-97.660 Caps 
*RES 4: 97.740 Mar 27-28 highs 
*RES 3: 97.715 Apr 2 high
*RES 2: 97.660 Apr 6, Apr 9 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: 97.645 6 month falling resistance line
*PRICE: 97.605 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: 97.600 Apr 26 low
*SUP 2: 97.585 Jun 29 2015 low
*SUP 3: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740
*SUP 4: 97.515 50% Fibo of 95.835/99.200
*COMMENTARY* The fall continued last month, beneath the first swing target at
97.625. A low of 97.600 so far, sustained break lower and not much is currently
evident ahead of the Jun 2015 low at 97.585 and more importantly the second
swing target at 97.560. As a consequence, initial resistance has fallen to
97.645-97.660, the former the level of the 6 month falling resistance line this
week. Above needed before any real respite likely.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

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