MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 113-112 Break Allows A Further 113-157/113-172 Rise

*RES 4: 113-290 61.8% Fibo of 114-207/112-250

*RES 3: 113-232 May 4 high

*RES 2: 113-172 May 10 high

*RES 1: 113-157 Intraday high

*PRICE: 113-110 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: 113-035/052 May 18, hourly support

*SUP 2: 112-307/310 May 21, May 22 lows

*SUP 3: 112-250 May 17 base

*SUP 4: 112-210 Equality fall from 118-320 to 122-285/116-155

*COMMENTARY* The loss of pivotal 113-272 support returned the overall focus to

the downside last month, followed by a break of the key 113-180/113-170 area. A

low of 112-250 so far, breaking below 112-290, the first of two equality fall

targets. In the meantime, has become oversold in the near term. Back above

113-035/113-077 encourages further recovery prospects, 113-157/113-172 the next

potential hurdle. Meanwhile, 113-052/112-307 remains support.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Rally Approaches 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level At 119-190

*RES 4: 119-315 May 4 high

*RES 3: 119-275 50% Fibo of 121-120/118-105

*RES 2: 119-215 May 10 high

*RES 1: 119-190 76.4% Fibo of 119-315/118-105

*PRICE: 119-100 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: 119-035 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 118-290 May 18 high, now support

*SUP 3: 118-210/215 May 20, May 21 lows

*SUP 4: 118-190 May 17 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Last week's decline saw the equality fall target at 118-150 give

way. A low of 118-105 seen on Thursday, so far keeping us away from a test to

the 6 year median line support at 118-050. In the meantime, some near term

oversold conditions have allowed a bounce, 119-060/119-115 resistance now

overcome. This sees the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 119-190 as next barrier of

note. Support now showing from between 119-035/118-290.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Recovery Falters At 142-22/142-26 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: 143-20/21 50% of 147-03/140-05, May 11 high

*RES 3: 143-10 Congestion area May 4-11, 76.4% Fibo 

*RES 2: 142-26 38.2% Fibo of 147-03/140-05

*RES 1: 142-22 61.8% Fibo of 144-08/140-05

*PRICE: 142-05 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: 141-18/19 May 16, May 21 highs, now support

*SUP 2: 141-01 May 22 low

*SUP 3: 140-21 Initial recovery high May 18, now support

*SUP 4: 140-05 May 17 low

*COMMENTARY* The fall continued last week, reaching a low of 140-05 on Thursday,

before seeing a bounce aided by some near term oversold conditions. In this

respect, the 141-18/141-19 resistance area has now been overcome, the dual Fibo

retrace levels between 142-22/142-26 now of more consequence higher. Initial

support now from that 141-19/141-18 region and then Tuesday's 141-01 low

protects the downside from another assault, 140-21 then ahead of 140-05 again.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Break Above 6 Month Downtrend, Has 97.735-97.740 Next

*RES 4: 97.820 Mar 2 high, 23.6% Fibo of 98.550-97.595

*RES 3: 97.770 76.4% Fibo of 97.820-97.595

*RES 2: 97.735/740 61.8% of 97.820-97.595, Mar 27-28 highs 

*RES 1: 97.715 Hourly congestion May 14-15

*PRICE: 97.695 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: 97.665 May 17 low

*SUP 2: 97.625 Congestion area Apr 18-May 3

*SUP 3: 97.585/595 Jun 29 2015 low, May 8 low

*SUP 4: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 6 month falling resistance line last week

and this has moved lower by time this, to 97.590. Back above here encourages,

and we have subsequently seen a return towards 97.735-97.740. The former a 61.8%

Fibo retrace level, the latter the Mar 27-28 highs. Will need an eventual break

through here, before gains can be extended toward 97.770 next. Support 97.665

but it is 97.625 that currently protects against a 97.595 return.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]