MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Further Fall Has 113-027/112-300 Support Within Sight

*RES 4: 113-207 May 31 low

*RES 3: 113-170 Jun 5 high

*RES 2: 113-130 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 113-092 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 113-045 @1015GMT

*SUP 1: 113-045 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 113-027 May 25 low

*SUP 3: 112-300 76.4% Fibo of 112-147/114-152

*SUP 4: 112-250 May 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Had continued to gain considerably, especially over the last week

or so but last Tuesday's 113-172/114-152 rise created an exhaustion spike. This

has basically seen a recovery to the upper 1% volatility band, a known inhibitor

to gains. The subsequent fall does nothing to question this so far, given the

loss of 113-192/113-172 support. Below then opens up some further correction of

the rise from 112-147, with support next from 113-027 and then 112-300.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Correction Approaches 119-045 Fibo Support

*RES 4: 120-070/080 Congestion area May 31-Jun 1

*RES 3: 119-295 May 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 119-210 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 119-135 Jun 4 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 119-045 @1027GMT

*SUP 1: 119-045 61.8% Fibo of 117-300/121-030

*SUP 2: 118-300 May 24 low

*SUP 3: 118-215 76.4% Fibo of 117-300/121-030

*SUP 4: 118-170 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery since the dip to 117-300 on May 17, resulted in a

sharp spike higher to 121-030 last week. Has subsequently seen a decent

pullback, as a result of some considerably overbought conditions. Now nearing

119-045, a 61.8% Fibo retrace of those gains, any lower and the May 24 low at

118-300 comes into play next. First resistance of note comes from the Jun 4 low

at 119-135, back above here required before any respite likely.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Decline Continues, 141-31/141-24 Next Support

*RES 4: 143-30 Jun 4 high

*RES 3: 143-14 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 143-01 Jun 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 142-19 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 142-02 @1039GMT

*SUP 1: 141-31 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: 141-24/27 May 25 low, 61.8% of 139-11/145-28

*SUP 3: 140-28 76.4% Fibo of 139-11/145-28

*SUP 4: 140-17 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall, the latest decline now nearing the lower 1%

volatility band at 141-31 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 141-27. This of

the preceding 139-11/145-28 rise seen throughout the second half of May.

Currently requires a move back above 142-19, before any near term recovery is

likely, 143-01/143-14 then the next target area higher. Loss of 141-27/141-24

will have the potential for a deeper 140-28/140-17 fall.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) Examining 97.500/97.510 Support After 97.640 Caps 

*RES 4: 97.680 Mar 28 high

*RES 3: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 2: 97.615 May 30 high

*RES 1: 97.565/575 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 97.520 @1042GMT

*SUP 1: 97.500/510 May 17-22 lows

*SUP 2: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 3: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*SUP 4: 97.395 Broken 9 month resistance line

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line earlier

last month, which has fallen by time to 97.395 this week and this has been the

precursor to some recovery. We have subsequently seen a rally back to 97.640 so

far, where the rally has stalled, the Mar 28 high at 97.680 the next resistance

of consequence higher. As a result, support from 97.575-97.555 has been lost,

although 97.510-97.500 provides a stronger base below. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]