MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Range Trading Remains The Name Of The Game

*RES 4: 113-280 61.8% Fibo of 114-152/112-290

*RES 3: 113-240/255 Jul 2, Jun 28 highs

*RES 2: 113-210/215 Jul 3, Jul 5, Jul 19 highs

*RES 1: 113-185/195 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 113-165 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: 113-142 Jul 20 low, 61.8% of 113-100/113-210

*SUP 2: 113-125 Jul 12 low, 76.4% of 113-100/113-210

*SUP 3: 113-095/100 Jun 22, Jul 19 lows

*SUP 4: 113-050 Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Sideways trading above 113-100/113-095 support remains the name of

the game but requiring a move back above 113-210/113-215 resistance, to break

out of this month long consolidation phase. Within this range, look to

113-185/113-195 for initial resistance and 113-142/113-125 for support. Above

113-215 and the Jun 28 high at 113-255 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at 113-280 are

next. Loss of 113-095 would test the Jun 21 low at 113-050.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 119-265 Provides Support To Recent Range Trading

*RES 4: 120-220 Equality rise from 119-135 to 118-295/120-060

*RES 3: 120-185 76.4% Fibo of 121-030/118-295

*RES 2: 120-135/150 Jul 5, Jun 28, May 31 highs

*RES 1: 120-095 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 120-020 @0934GMT

*SUP 1: 119-275 Jul 19 low

*SUP 2: 119-265 Jun 26 low

*SUP 3: 119-205 Jun 22 low

*SUP 4: 119-135 Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last month's dip to 118-295 has so far been

capped by 120-145. The subsequent pullback is likely to test support from

between 119-300/119-265. A loss of the latter would however caution and suggest

a deeper 119-205/119-135 fall, as retracements of those gains from 118-295 begin

to bite. On the topside, a move back above 120-095 would assist and should allow

re-examination of 120-135/120-150 and potentially higher.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Continues Retreat From Key 145-25/145-28 Area

*RES 4: 146-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: 145-28 May 30 high

*RES 2: 145-25 Equality rise from 143-01 to 142-01/144-25

*RES 1: 145-06 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 144-07 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: 143-30 Jun 26 low

*SUP 2: 143-13 Jun 22 low

*SUP 3: 143-01 Jun 21 low

*SUP 4: 142-18 Jun 11 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke through the 145-16 area early in the month and has been

followed by a test toward the equality rise target at 145-25 and the May 30 high

at 145-28. Meanwhile, the subsequent pullback has lost 144-27/144-14 support,

with the key 143-30 level waiting below. Only a loss of the latter would suggest

extra scope to see a 143-13/143-01 fall. In the interim, resistance from 145-06

but only a sustained break above 145-28 will see a 146-03/146-15 challenge next.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) Attempting Break Above The Months Previous 97.560 Cap

*RES 4: 97.680 Mar 28 high, 50% Fibo of 97.880-97.475

*RES 3: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 2: 97.600 76.4% Fibo of 97.640-97.475

*RES 1: 97.575 May 14 high, 61.8% of 97.640-97.475

*PRICE: 97.565 @0948GMT

*SUP 1: 97.520 Jun 20-22 lows

*SUP 2: 97.500 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 4: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line in early

May and this has been the precursor to some recovery. We have subsequently seen

a rally back to 97.640 where the rally stalled. As a result, there has been a

fresh fall below 97.500 support, although the decline has been held by the

stronger 97.475 level. This remains key to overall direction. Nearest resistance

97.560-97.575, although above 97.600 needed for impetus.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]