MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Fresh Fall Challenges 113-050/113-037 Support

*RES 4: 113-240/255 Jul 2, Jun 28 highs

*RES 3: 113-210/215 Jul 3, Jul 5, Jul 19 highs

*RES 2: 113-175 Jul 23 high

*RES 1: 113-092/100 Jul 24 high, Jul 19 low

*PRICE: 113-042 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: 113-025 Jul 25 low

*SUP 2: 112-290/300 Jun 13 low, 76.4% of 112-147/114-152

*SUP 3: 112-260 Congestion area mid May

*SUP 4: 112-147 May 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Has moved below 113-100/113-095 support taking us out of the recent

consolidation range and once again eyeing 113-050/113-037 support. A low just

below here of 113-025 so far, the protection to the main support area, which is

still located between 112-300/112-290. Have to remain above the latter or

overall bias switches to lower again. Meanwhile, 113-02/113-100 now provides

immediate resistance, with Monday's 113-175 high, of more consequence above.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Descent Held By 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: 120-135/150 Jul 5, Jun 28 & May 31 highs

*RES 3: 120-080 Jul 17, Jul 18 highs

*RES 2: 119-320 Jul 10, Jul 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 119-225 Jul 25 high

*PRICE: 119-130 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: 119-105 76.4% Fibo of 118-295/120-200

*SUP 2: 119-060 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 118-295 Jun 13 low

*SUP 4: 118-215/225 1% volatility band, 76.4% 117-300/121-030

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last month's dip to 118-295 has so far been

capped by 120-145. The subsequent pullback has now broken below 119-300/119-265

support. Loss of the latter cautions and suggests a deeper 119-105 fall, as

retracements of those gains from 118-295 begin to bite. On the topside, a move

back above 119-225/119-320 would assist. Below 119-105 and minor support from

119-060 protects the June low at 118-295.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Decline Heads For 142-18/142-01 Support

*RES 4: 145-00 Jul 12 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 144-12 Jul 19 low, Jul 23 high

*RES 2: 144-01 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: 143-19 Jul 25 high

*PRICE: 142-30 @1105GMT

*SUP 1: 142-20/21 Jul 25, Jul 24 lows

*SUP 2: 142-18 Jun 11 low

*SUP 3: 142-01 Jun 7 low, 61.8% Fibo of 139-11/146-11

*SUP 4: 141-00 76.4% Fibo of 139-11/146-11

*COMMENTARY* Broke through the 145-16 area early in the month and has been

followed by a test toward the equality rise target at 145-25 and the May 30 high

at 145-28. Meanwhile, the subsequent pullback has now lost key support from

143-30. Loss here suggests scope to see a further 142-18/142-01 fall. In the

interim, resistance from 143-19/144-01 and then Monday's 144-12 high. Back above

here needed before any respite is likely.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) 97.560 Break Allows A Higher 97.580-97.600 Rise

*RES 4: 97.680 Mar 28 high, 50% Fibo of 97.880-97.475

*RES 3: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 2: 97.600 76.4% Fibo of 97.640-97.475

*RES 1: 97.580/585 61.8% of 97.640-97.475, Jul 24 high

*PRICE: 97.575 @1108GMT

*SUP 1: 97.520 Jun 20-22 lows

*SUP 2: 97.500 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 4: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line in early

May and this has been the precursor to some recovery. We have subsequently seen

a rally back to 97.640 where the rally stalled. As a result, there has been a

fresh fall below 97.500 support, although the decline has been held by the

stronger 97.475 level. This remains key to overall direction. Nearest resistance

97.580-97.585, although above 97.600 needed for impetus.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]