MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Continues, $1.1906-$1.1921 Next Measured

Objectives

*RES 4: $1.1960 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1921 Equality rise from $1.1119 to $1.0494-$1.1296

*RES 2: $1.1906 Max 5th wave target in rise from $1.1650

*RES 1: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1857 @0903GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1805 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1785 Aug 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.1764 Jul 28 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1723 Jul 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's pullback stayed above $1.1764, thereby keeping alive the

notion that it was a 4th wave correction in the rise from last Thursday's

$1.1650 base. The subsequent move above $1.1855 has us noting the June 2010 low

at $1.1881 but opening the possibility of a further $1.1906-$1.1921 rise. The

latter the maximum 5th wave objective. In the meantime, support rises to $1.1805

but a move back below yesterday's $1.1785 low would disappoint.

CABLE TECHS: Break Higher Brings $1.3245-$1.3253 Next Into View

*RES 4: $1.3363 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3332 1.618 swing of $1.3048-$1.2589

*RES 2: $1.3253 Equality rise target from $1.2812

*RES 1: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933

*PRICE: $1.3243 @0907GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3189 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3152/59 Jul 28, Jul 27 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3120 Hourly congestion area Jul 31 

*SUP 4: $1.3097 Jul 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke above 1.3184 resistance on Monday, and now approaching the

next target area from between $1.3245-$1.3253. This a combination of a recent

swing target and an equality rise move from the Jul 12 low at $1.2812. As a

consequence, support also on the rise, $1.3189 is the initial protection ahead

of two recent highs between $1.3159-$1.3152. Clearly through $1.3253 and

currently not a lot showing ahead of another swing target at $1.3332.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.99-Y111.10 The Near Term Bar To Greater Recovery

*RES 4: Y111.66/72 38.2% of Y114.50-Y109.91, Jul 27 high

*RES 3: Y111.29 Jul 28 high

*RES 2: Y111.05/10 Hourly congestion Jul 27-28

*RES 1: Y110.99 23.6% Fibo of Y114.50-Y109.91

*PRICE: Y110.79 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.15/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.91 Aug 1 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*SUP 4: Y109.39 4 month rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Support found from Y109.91 on Tuesday, slightly below the lower 1%

volatility band at the time but so far keeping us from a test to what looks

stronger support from Y109.63. The subsequent rise having moved back above

Y110.78 now sees initial resistance from between Y110.99-Y111.10. Will need to

clear the latter before thoughts can turn to Y111.29-Y111.72. Immediate support

now spied between Y110.30-Y110.15.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Break Has Y131.52-Y132.18 As Next Upside Targets

*RES 4: Y133.37 Equality rise from Y122.40 to Y114.85-Y125.82

*RES 3: Y132.78 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y132.18 1.618 swing of Y130.77-Y128.49

*RES 1: Y131.48/52 1% vol band,1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*PRICE: Y131.24 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.60/62 Prior late July highs, now support

*SUP 3: Y130.15/20 Hourly congestion Aug 1

*SUP 4: Y129.84 Aug 1 low

*COMMENTARY* After another scoot back down into the range on Tuesday, we have

finally got the upside break above Y130.62. This sees Y131.52 as next resistance

ahead of a second swing target at the higher Y132.18 level. As a result, initial

support comes from Y130.80, ahead of those previous range highs at Y130.60-62.

Back below will disappoint but Y130.15-20 is currently the stronger support

area. Slightly bigger picture and Y133.37-Y133.63 looks the attraction.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Sustained Stg0.8970 Break Still Needed To Resume Rally

*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9028/37 Nov 9 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8994 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8970/76 Jul 25, Jul 31 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8949 @0937GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 18 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20

*SUP 3: Stg0.8829/36 Jul 19 low, 12 week rising suppt line 

*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.8994

*COMMENTARY* Tried and failed to establish a break back above Stg0.8970 on

Monday. The rally quickly repelled and sent back into the recent consolidation

range above Stg0.8891-99 support. Can't give up on seeing an eventual upside

break however, all the time this support area survives. Only a loss will dampen

upside potential and suggest scope for a deeper Stg0.8867-Stg0.8828 fall.

Sustained break of Stg0.8970 can lead to a Stg0.9028-Stg0.9052 rise next.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Makes An Initial Test To The 76.4% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1289.0 Jun 8 high

*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 1: $1271.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1266.7 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 Jul 24 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1252.1 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1239.5 Jul 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continued last week, with the

recent move through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1261.2. Last Thursday's $1265.5 high now breached and this

suggests that the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 is the next upside target

and potential barrier. In the interim, support also on the rise, $1258.9

initially and then more importantly in the near term from $1252.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]