MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1715-20 Support Protects Against Fresh Downside

Interest 

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1.1800/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1761 @0905GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1715/20 Hourly basing area Aug 8-Aug 9

*SUP 2: $1.1682/89 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 21 high

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*SUP 4: $1.1612/13 50% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery over the last couple of days has run out of steam

ahead of the $1.1860-70 area. Through here needed to switch near term bias to

higher again. A high of $1.1847 before giving up some ground and eyes are now on

$1.1715-20 for next clues. A loss will put pressure back on $1.1682-29 again,

beneath which only minor support protects against a deeper $1.1612-$1.1591 fall.

Resistance falls to $1.1800-15.

CABLE TECHS: Weak Recovery Leaves $1.2900-$1.2882 As Next Support

*RES 4: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3032 Aug 11 high

*RES 2: $1.3000/05 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.2970 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2916 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2900 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2882 1.618 swing of $1.2939-$1.3032

*SUP 3: $1.2849 61.8% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 4: $1.2812 Jul 12 low

*COMMENTARY* Recovery petered out in the lower end of $1.3029-$1.3059

resistance. The subsequent fall has now fallen below the key $1.2920-29 support

area. This now leaves the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2900 by time today and

the swing target at $1.2882, as near term protection against a deeper

$1.2849-$1.2812 decline. Resistance also falls, $1.2970-$1.3005 now the barrier

to $1.3032 and a chance of a better recovery.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Continues, Eyes A Y110.83-Y111.05 Challenge

*RES 4: Y111.38 76.4% Fibo of Y112.20-Y108.73

*RES 3: Y111.05 Aug 4 high

*RES 2: Y110.83/93 Aug 8 high, 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73

*RES 1: Y110.45/50 Congestion area Aug 8-Aug 9 

*PRICE: Y110.42 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.80 Aug 14 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y109.58/62 Hourly basing area Aug 14

*SUP 3: Y109.41/42 Aug 11 high, Aug 14 low

*SUP 4: Y109.00 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The move back through Y109.84 has instilled further near term

upside confidence, the congested Y110.45-50 area is now the barrier to increased

gains. As a result, support also on the rise, Monday's Y109.80 high the

immediate protection, the Y109.62-Y109.41 region currently of more consequence

below. Directly through Y110.50 and next resistance comes from between two of

the month's previous Y110.83-Y111.05 highs.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Now Faces Y130.10-Y130.65 Resistance

*RES 4: Y131.41 Aug 2 high

*RES 3: Y131.18 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y130.60/65 Congestion area Aug 3-Aug 8

*RES 1: Y130.10 Aug 4 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.83 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.48 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y129.15/20 Hourly support

*SUP 3: Y128.92 Aug 14 low

*SUP 4: Y128.54 Initial recovery high Aug 11, now support

*COMMENTARY* The hold of the key Y128.00-Y127.97 area last week has continued to

spawn a recovery. Today threatening to move clearly back above the broken 4

month support line at Y129.95. Through here and next resistance comes from the

Aug 4 low at Y130.10 and more importantly the congested Y130.60-65 region. As a

consequence, support now from the day's Y129.48 low but 129.15-20 currently

looks more important to upside well being.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key Support Survived Last Week And Generated A Bounce

*RES 4: Stg0.9214 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9137/40 1.618 swing Stg0.9089-Stg 0.9008, 1% vol

*RES 1: Stg0.9119 Aug 11 high

*PRICE: Stg0.9113 @0944GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9065/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.9051 Aug 11 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.9036 5 week rising support line

*SUP 4: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has built on the support provided by the Stg0.9008-Stg0.9009 lows

last week, culminating in a move back above initial Stg0.9075 resistance and

also the swing target at Stg0.9091. A high of Stg0.9119 on Friday, basically in

line with a test to the upper 1% volatility band at the time but so far shy of

the next resistance from the Stg0.9137-Stg0.9143 area. As a result, support

rises to Stg0.9075-Stg0.9051.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Ensues After Falter Ahead Of The Year's High

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1296.1 Jun 6 high

*RES 2: $1292.3 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1287.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1273.9 @0954GMT

*SUP 1: $1272.0 50% Fibo of $1251.7-$1292.3

*SUP 2: $1267.2 61.8% Fibo of $1251.7-$1292.3

*SUP 3: $1262.9 6 week rising support line

*SUP 4: $1261.3 76.4% Fibo of $1251.7-$1292.3

*COMMENTARY* After faltering at $1292.3, ahead of the year's previous $1296.1

high, we have commenced a correction, initially of gains from the Aug 8 low at

$1251.7. This now sees the 50% retrace level at $1272.0 as initial support and

protection against a greater fall. Not until/unless we lose the $1262.9-$1261.3

area however, does the overall bias once again swing back to the downside.

Meanwhile, resistance from $1287.5 can keep a lid on any recovery. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]