MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 1.1847 Break Remains The Marker For Fresh Upside

Interest

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1888 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1.1810/28 Hourly resistance, Aug 21 high

*PRICE: $1.1770 @0743GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1700/20 Hourly support, hourly base Aug 18

*SUP 2: $1.1652/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*SUP 4: $1.1612 50% Fibo of $1.1312-$1.1911 

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last week's dip to $1.1662 has yet to see a break

back above the Aug 11 high at $1.1847. Really need to see levels above here,

before the belief in the upside will return and for a higher $1.1888-$1.1921

rise. As a result, support also moves, $1.1720-$1.1700 the initial area of

interest and protection against a renewed downside push, with $1.1662-$1.1652

now the brake to anything more serious at present.

CABLE TECHS: Slipping As $1.2812 Support Comes Under Assault

*RES 4: $1.2991 Hourly recovery high Aug 14

*RES 3: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2917/18 Aug 21, Aug 18 highs

*RES 1: $1.2880/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2810 @0756GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2806/12 Intraday, Jul 12 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2764/68 38.2% of $1.1947-$1.3269, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.2749 76.4% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 4: $1.2702 Equality fall from $1.3032 to $1.3269-$1.2939

*COMMENTARY* Now trying to break clearly below $1.2812 support, loss will allow

a deeper $1.2768-$1.2749 fall next. As a result, nearest resistance falls

slightly to $1.2880-90 but still need to recover $1.2918-$1.2939 before the near

term impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Lose 1.2749 and

the equality fall target at $1.2702 is the brake to a $1.2639-$1.2608 decline.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Now Has Y110.05-Y110.38 As Next Barrier To Recovery

*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.38 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y110.05 Hourly recovery high Aug 17

*RES 1: Y109.83 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y109.38 @0803GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.90/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.48/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*SUP 4: Y107.36/38 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* A fall to Y108.60 low last Friday but the subsequent recovery

formed a 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. This survived another assault

on Monday, before seeing another bounce and the chance for a better recovery.

This having breached Y109.67, now has the Y110.05-Y110.38 area of more

consequence higher. Initial support Y109.05-Y108.90 but lose Y108.60-Y108.48 and

outlook changes, with the year's Y108.13 low then under threat.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Still Propped By Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y130.30/40 1% volatility band, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y129.77 Recovery high Aug 16

*RES 2: Y129.38 Congestion area Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y129.16/19 Hourly high Aug 17, Aug 22 high

*PRICE: Y128.87 @0807GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.33/40 Aug 22 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.84 Aug 21 low

*SUP 3: Y127.56/65 Aug 18 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y127.04 Equality fall from Y130.40 to Y131.41-Y128.05

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few

days and indeed allowed a small recovery. This has reached Y126.19 so far but

still lacking the impetus for an assault on the more important Y129.38-Y129.77

area. Will need to see gains back through the latter, before the overall focus

can return to the topside. Meanwhile, Y128.33-40 provides initial support,

Y127.84 then protecting the volatility band again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Enters Next Stg0.9194-Stg0.9215 Target Area

*RES 4: Stg0.9306 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9260 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: Stg0.9215 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.9194 1.618 swing of Stg0.9144-Stg0.9063

*PRICE: Stg0.9195 @0817GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9155/61 Aug 22, intraday lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.9144 Aug 16 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.9111/19 Aug 21 low, 6 week rising support line

*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 Aug 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Still moving higher, having shaken off the shackles provided by the

Stg0.9144 area over the earlier part of the month. Now challenging the swing

target at Stg0.9194, above which the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9215, is

the next potential brake to this rise. Initial support now seen from between

Stg0.9161-Stg0.9144 but it is the 6 week rising support line at Stg0.9119 and

the Aug 21 low at Stg0.9111 that currently provides the main back up.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating Above 7 Week Rising Support Line

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4

*RES 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: $1296.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1286.2 @0820GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 Aug 18 low

*SUP 2: $1276.3 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*SUP 4: $1260.1 Aug 9 low

*COMMENTARY* A spike above the year's previous $1296.1 high last Friday did not

see much longevity, falling back after reaching a high of $1300.9. This somewhat

shy of the swing target at $1307.7 and the favoured 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1315.7. Immediate support from that pullback low at $1280.6 and then more

importantly from $1276.3. This the current level of the 7 week rising support

line.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]