MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Held Between Swing Target And 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2086 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2070 Aug 29 high

*RES 2: $1.2032 Initial low Aug 29, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1990/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1947 @0848GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1914/17 38.2% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 28 low

*SUP 2: $1.1847/66 Aug 11 high, 50% of $1.1662-$1.2070

*SUP 3: $1.1818/28 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 21 high

*SUP 4: $1.1754/58 Initial rally high Aug 17, 76.4% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally was capped at $1.2070 betwixt the swing target of

the $1.1911-$1.1662 fall and the upper 2% volatility band. Has since fallen away

as we begin to correct those $1.1662-$1.2070 gains. Initial support from around

$1.1914-17 protects against a deeper fall at present, the $1.1818-28 area seen

as important and protecting recent upside momentum. Resistance $1.1990-$1.2000,

back above $1.2032 needed to renew upside bias.

CABLE TECHS: $1.2900 Area Becomes Pivotal To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: $1.3022 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, Aug 14 high

*RES 3: $1.3001 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2979 Aug 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2938 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2914 @0858GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2896/00 Intraday low, initial rally high Aug 28

*SUP 2: $1.2874 Aug 28 low

*SUP 3: $1.2852 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*SUP 4: $1.2822 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*COMMENTARY* The recovery faltered on Tuesday at $1.2979, shy of a test to the

upper 1% volatility band and the next Fibo retrace, the 50% at $1.3022. Downside

now exploring support from around $1.2900, sustained break lower will have the

capacity to reach $1.2874-$1.2822 as we correct the recent gains from the Aug 24

low at $1.2774. Meanwhile, back above the day's $1.2938 high needed to boost

near term hopes.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Tuesday's Recovery Creates A Bullish 'Outside Day'

*RES 4: Y110.95 Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.65 38.2% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.27

*RES 2: Y110.38/45 Aug 17 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y110.18 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y109.89 @0922GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.45/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Initial high Aug 29, now support

*SUP 3: Y108.60/65 Minor congestion area Aug 28-29

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Aug 29 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fall was held by the lower 1% volatility band on Tuesday,

thereby preserving the year's previous Y108.13 low. The subsequent swift

recovery has created a potentially bullish 'outside day' on the daily chart, a

fresh low coupled with a close above the previous day's high. A high of Y110.18

so far, as we encounter some near term overbought conditions. Support comes from

between Y109.55-Y108.97 but only a loss of Y108.60 would caution.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh High But Becomes Overbought In The Near Term

*RES 4: Y133.63 76.4% Fibo of Y141.08-Y109.51

*RES 3: Y132.33 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: Y132.17 2% volatility band

*RES 1: Y131.88 Underside prev broken 5 month support line

*PRICE: Y131.34 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.90/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.45 Hourly basing area Aug 29

*SUP 3: Y130.15 Hourly congestion area Aug 28-29

*SUP 4: Y129.66 Aug 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally has now surpassed the previous Y131.41 high and is now on

the approach to Y131.88-Y132.17 resistance. Has faltered so far at the slightly

earlier Y131.71 level, as the rise becomes dogged by near term overbought

conditions. In this respect, look to Y130.90-95 for initial support, this

protecting against a greater Y130.45-Y130.15 fall, as we give back some of the

gains from Monday's Y128.66 low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Equality Rise Target Caps, Stg0.9188-90 Now Key Support

*RES 4: Stg0.9382/86 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880

*RES 2: Stg0.9290 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.9270 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.9250 @0948GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9230/35 Aug 28 low, Aug 24 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.9215 Hourly congestion Aug 24-25

*SUP 3: Stg0.9188/90 7 week rising support line, Aug 24 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.9142 Aug 16 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Having broken slightly above both the upper 1% volatility band and

the 4 month bull channel top, at Stg0.9294 and Stg0.9297 respectively, the rally

was halted just below the equality rise target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent

pullback helps to remove some near term overbought conditions, with initial

support from between Stg0.9235-Stg0.9215. Main support however comes from

Stg0.9188-Stg0.9190.

GOLD TECHS: Overbought Near Term $1305.1-$1295.1 Support

*RES 4: $1350.1 9 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1337.6 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: $1326.2 Aug 29 high

*RES 1: $1313.7 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1310.9 @1008GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.1 Aug 29 low

*SUP 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1295.1 Aug 25 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1286.5 Congestion area Aug 18-25

*COMMENTARY* A sharp spike lower last Friday found support from above the Aug 1

high at $1274.2. This thereby keeping near term momentum with the topside. The

subsequent break back above $1294.4 confirmed this, followed by breaks above the

Aug 18 high at $1300.9 and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1315.7. A high

of $1326.2 so far, as we look towards $1337.6-$1352.5 as the next target area.

Overbought near term, $1305.1-$1295.1 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]