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W/C July 25, 2022


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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1883-87 Left Behind As Key $1.1823-38 Area Comes Into
*RES 4: $1.2040 Hourly highs Sep 8
*RES 3: $1.1995 Sep 13 high
*RES 2: $1.1965 Hourly base Sep 13, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1926 Sep 12 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1895 @0830GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1866/68 Intraday low, Sep 5 low
*SUP 2: $1.1823/28 Aug 31 low, Equality fall from $1.1995
*SUP 3: $1.1790 5 month rising support line
*SUP 4: $1.1764/73 76.4% of $1.1662-$1.2093, Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from Friday's $1.2093 high broke below support from
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1926, on Wednesday, having failed to recover
any more than $1.1995 in the interim. Now below the $1.1883-$1.1887 area, which
leaves the way open for a test to the next key area around $1.1828-$1.1823.
Meanwhile, resistance comes from $1.1926, with $1.1965-$1.1995 of more
consequence higher.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3190-$1.3161 Now Becomes A Key Support Zone
*RES 4: $1.3360 2017 bull channel top projection
*RES 3: $1.3329 Sep 13 high
*RES 2: $1.3290 Hourly recovery high Sep 13
*RES 1: $1.3255 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3204 @0857GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3184/90 Sep 13 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3161 Sep 12 low
*SUP 3: $1.3147 38.2% Fibo of $1.2852-$1.3329
*SUP 4: $1.3091 50% Fibo of $1.2852-$1.3329
*COMMENTARY* Rally through recent $1.3224 highs has now exceeded the year's
former $1.3269 high. A peak so far of $1.3329, as we near the upper 2%
volatility band and the 2017 bull channel projection top at $1.3360. Some near
term heavily overbought conditions are since being rectified and eyes are now on
$1.3190 support. Sustained loss here would damage recent upside upside momentum
and heap pressure back on $1.3161. Resistance between $1.3255-$1.3290.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.91-Y110.95 Now The Bar To Greater Gains
*RES 4: Y111.76 61.8% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32
*RES 3: Y111.63 2% volatility band
*RES 2: Y110.91/95 50% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32, Aug 16 high
*RES 1: Y110.74 Intraday high
*PRICE: Y110.40 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.10 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.90 Sep 13 low
*SUP 3: Y109.24 Hourly base Sep 11
*SUP 4: Y108.62 Initial recovery high Sep 11, now support  
*COMMENTARY* The power of the 'Doji' candle close last Friday has now seen a
rally through the upper 1% volatility band, at Y110.54 by time today, and
slightly above the previous high of note, the Aug 31 peak at Y110.67. A
sustained break higher will meet decent resistance from between Y110.91-Y110.95
next. Above and look to Y111.63-Y111.76. In the interim, support rises to
Y110.10 but Y109.90 provides a stronger marker. Loss would disappoint now.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.10-Y130.91 Provides Important Intraday Support
*RES 4: Y133.16 1.618 swing of Y131.71-Y129.37
*RES 3: Y132.23/33 Aug 2015 low, Feb 2016 high
*RES 2: Y131.97/10 1% vol band, 1.618 swing Y131.09-Y129.46
*RES 1: Y131.70/80 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.40 @0913GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.10 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y130.91 Sep 11 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y130.67 Sep 8 high, Sep 12 low
*SUP 4: Y130.37 Hourly high Sep 8, now support
*COMMENTARY* A high so far of Y132.02, roughly in line with the upper 1%
volatility band and the swing target of the recent Y131.09-Y129.46 fall. Support
seen from Y131.10-Y130.91, loss would caution now and open up corrective
potential of recent gains from Y129.46-Y129.37. Meanwhile, resistance Y131.70-80
but above Y132.10 and the Y133.16-Y133.28 area is the next real attraction,
ahead of the long term Y133.63-Y134.41 Fibo retrace levels.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Stg0.9039 Needed To Provide Near Term Respite
*RES 4: Stg0.9119/22 Sep 7 low, Sep 11 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9091/94 Hourly highs Sep 11
*RES 2: Stg0.9069 Broken 4 month support line
*RES 1: Stg0.9037/39 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.9020 @0924GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8975 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8958 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306
*SUP 3: Stg0.8918/27 2% vol band, 38.2% Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*SUP 4: Stg0.8876/80 76.4% Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306, Jun 28 high
*COMMENTARY* The setback from last month's Stg0.9306 high broke below key
support from between Stg0.9100-Stg0.9091 on Monday and Tuesday lost support from
the lower 1% volatility band and also the 4 month rising support line at
Stg0.9069. A low of Stg0.8975 seen so far, ahead of what looks a stronger area
between Stg0.8958-Stg0.8927. In the interim, nearest resistance falls to
Stg0.9037-St0.9039, above would give a lift and some near term respite.
GOLD TECHS: Correcting After Rally Falters Below 9 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 8 high
*RES 3: $1350.2 Sep 7 high
*RES 2: $1340.5 Sep 11 high
*RES 1: $1337.1 Sep 12 high
*PRICE: $1323.1 @0929GMT
*SUP 1: $1316.4 Sep 1 low
*SUP 2: $1311.6 76.4% Fibo of $1297.3-$1357.7
*SUP 3: $1303.5 2 month rising support line
*SUP 4: $1297.3 Aug 31 low
*COMMENTARY* The rally continued last week, moving through what looked decent
resistance from around $1352.8. A high of $1357.7 attained, just shy of the 9
month bull channel top projection at $1360.4. Has now encountered some near term
overbought conditions. The subsequent loss of $1337.8 suggests some caution and
corrective capability. Next support now comes from $1316.4-$1311.6, whereas
nearest resistance now $1337.1-$1340.5.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

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