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By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Swing Target At $1.1715 Protects $1.1662-$1.1645 Fall
*RES 4: $1.1898 Sep 22 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.1854/61 Head & Shoulders neckline, Sep 20 low
*RES 2: $1.1833/37 Sep 29 high, Sep 14 low
*RES 1: $1.1796 Sep 27 high
*PRICE: $1.1743 @0842GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1715/17 1.618 swing $1.1837-$1.2034, Sep 27 low
*SUP 2: $1.1662 Aug 17 low
*SUP 3: $1.1645 1.618 swing of $1.1833-$1.1717
*SUP 4: $1.1620 1.618x $1.2093-$1.1837 from $1.2034
*COMMENTARY* The loss of the consolidation base and key support from $1.1823,
was the catalyst for the latest fall, which last week also lost support from the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1764. This now leaves the swing target at $1.1715
as the next potential downside target, ahead of the next important area between
$1.1662-$1.1645. As a result, nearest resistance is currently $1.1796-$1.1837,
but above $1.1854-$1.1861 needed to ease near term pressure.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3321 Break Suggests Scope For A $1.3272-$1.3269 Fall
*RES 4: $1.3456 Sep 28 high
*RES 3: $1.3425 Hourly recovery high Sep 29
*RES 2: $1.3405/10 Hourly congestion area Sep 29
*RES 1: $1.3350/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3314 @0905GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3269/72 Aug 3 high, 76.4% of $1.3153-$1.3659
*SUP 2: $1.3216 50% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659
*SUP 3: $1.3185 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3112 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659
*COMMENTARY* The 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.3321 has come under pressure
today, the break below here suggests there may be scope for a fall back towards
$1.3272-$1.3269 next. This a combination of the Aug 3 high, as well as a 76.4%
Fibo level and also the swing target of the recent $1.3343-$1.3456 recovery. In
the meantime, look to $1.3350-60 for initial resistance, the congested
$1.3405-10 area above but $1.3425 currently represents a tougher ask.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Pegged Back By Near Term Equality Rise Target
*RES 4: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 3: Y113.91 1.618 swing of Y113.26-Y112.21
*RES 2: Y113.50/58 1.618 swing Y112.72-Y111.47, Jul 14 high
*RES 1: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04
*PRICE: Y112.83 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.43/53 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y112.21 Sep 29 low
*SUP 3: Y111.89 76.4% Fibo of Y111.47-Y113.26
*SUP 4: Y111.47 Sep 25 low
*COMMENTARY* The key Y111.45 support held last week and prefaced another rise.
This has broken above the year's Y112.67 falling resistance line and the 50%
Fibo retrace level at Y113.00 but has so far been capped by the equality rise
target at Y113.27. As a result, support has also risen, Y112.53-Y112.21 the
initial area now and protection against a deeper correction of those gains from
Y111.47. Directly above Y113.27 and have Y113.50-Y113.91 to negotiate next.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.29-Y132.09 Support After Y133.12 Caps Recovery
*RES 4: Y133.85 Hourly congestion area Sep 22-25
*RES 3: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22
*RES 2: Y133.12 Sep 29 high
*RES 1: Y132.85/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.49 @0919GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.29 Sep 28 low
*SUP 2: Y132.09 Sep 27 low
*SUP 3: Y131.71/75 Aug 30 high, Sep 26 low
*SUP 4: Y131.51 76.4% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41
*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 late last month, in line with a test to
the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim,
we have seen a loss of Y133.26 support, beneath which opened the prospect of a
deeper Y131.71-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep
14 low at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.85-Y133.12. Back
above the latter currently needed for respite.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8840-Stg0.8865 The Bar To A Fresh Stg0.8900 Challenge
*RES 4: Stg0.8960 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746
*RES 3: Stg0.8893/00 1% volatility band, Sep 19 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8865 Congestion area Sep 19-20
*RES 1: Stg0.8840/42 Hourly lows/high Sep 22, Sep 29 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8820 @0932GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8765/70 Congestion area Sep 27-28
*SUP 3: Stg0.8743/46 Jul 14, Sep 27 lows
*SUP 4: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900 resistance last month.
As a result, pressure returned to the downside with a low of Stg0.8746, just
above the important Stg0.8743 level. The subsequent recovery, on the back of
some near term oversold conditions, has resistance from between
Stg0.8840-Stg0.8865 in the way of another challenge to Stg0.8900. In the
meantime, Stg0.8795-Stg0.8765 protects another test towards Stg0.8743.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Continues, $1263.2 The Next Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1299.2 4 week falling resistance line
*RES 3: $1296.4 Sep 27 high
*RES 2: $1290.5 Sep 29 high
*RES 1: $1286.0 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1273.2 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: $1267.4 Aug 15 low
*SUP 2: $1263.2 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 4: $1237.7 2017 bull channel base
*COMMENTARY* Support from the Aug 25 low at $1274.7 has come under pressure
today. Below here and the minor $1267.4 level protects against a fall to the
next Fibo retrace level at $1263.2, this as we continue to move back down the
2017 bull channel. As a result, nearest resistance of note currently comes from
$1286.0 but back above the 4 week falling resistance line, at $1299.2 by time
today, is likely needed before any real recovery can begin.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: email@example.com
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