MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1750-$1.1763 The Immediate Bar To Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: $1.1855/61 Head & Shoulders neckline, Sep 20 low

*RES 3: $1.1833/37 Sep 29 high, Sep 14 low

*RES 2: $1.1804 Sep 28 high

*RES 1: $1.1750/63 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1721 @0705GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1696 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.1662 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.1645 1.618 swing of $1.1833-$1.1717

*SUP 4: $1.1620 1.618x $1.2093-$1.1837 from $1.2034

*COMMENTARY* The swing target at $1.1715 has finally given way. The lower 1%

volatility band at $1.1696 offering some support, ahead of the next downside

targets strung between $1.1682-$1.1620. Has become oversold on an intraday

basis, looking to $1.1750-$1.1763 for initial clues. Back above here needed to

influence any recovery efforts, with $1.1804-$1.1837 then providing sterner

tests above. The head and shoulders neckline then at the higher $1.1855 level.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3300-$1.3350 Provides Resistance To Any Bounce 

*RES 4: $1.3452/56 Sep 20 low, Sep 28 high

*RES 3: $1.3380/90 Hourly congestion Sep 27, 29 & Oct 2

*RES 2: $1.3343/50 Sep 28, Sep 29 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3300/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3279 @0717GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3230 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3216 50% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*SUP 3: $1.3157 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3112 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY*  The further loss of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.3321 on

Monday has seen fresh downside pressure break below $1.3272-$1.3269 support. A

low of $1.3230 so far as we head towards the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.3216.

This the protection against a deeper $1.3157-$1.3112 fall, as we give back some

of the gains from the Aug 24 base at $1.2774. Resistance from $1.3300-$1.3305

provides the first barrier, then $1.3343-$1.3350, to any recovery hopes.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Further Rise Needs Break Above Equality Rise Target

*RES 4: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 3: Y113.91 1.618 swing of Y113.26-Y112.21

*RES 2: Y113.50/58 1.618 swing Y112.72-Y111.47, Jul 14 high

*RES 1: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04

*PRICE: Y113.03 @0721GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.43/53 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.21 Sep 29 low

*SUP 3: Y111.89 76.4% Fibo of Y111.47-Y113.26

*SUP 4: Y111.47 Sep 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The key Y111.45 support held last week and prefaced another rise.

This has broken above the year's Y112.67 falling resistance line and the 50%

Fibo retrace level at Y113.00 but has so far been capped by the equality rise

target at Y113.27. As a result, support has also risen, Y112.53-Y112.21 the

initial area now and protection against a deeper correction of those gains from

Y111.47. Directly above Y113.27 and have Y113.50-Y113.91 to negotiate next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.80-Y133.12 The Resistance To Any Near Term Recovery

*RES 4: Y133.85 Hourly congestion area Sep 22-25

*RES 3: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22

*RES 2: Y133.12 Sep 29 high

*RES 1: Y132.80/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.61 @0728GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.09/19 Sep 27, Oct 2 lows

*SUP 2: Y131.71/75 Aug 30 high, Sep 26 low

*SUP 3: Y131.51 76.4% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41

*SUP 4: Y130.90 1.618 swing of Y131.75-Y133.12

*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 late last month, in line with a test to

the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim,

we have seen a loss of Y133.26 support, beneath which opened the prospect of a

deeper Y131.71-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep

14 low at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.80-Y133.12. Back

above the latter currently needed for respite.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8865-69 Now The Bar To A Fresh Stg0.8900 Challenge

*RES 4: Stg0.8995 1.618 swing of Stg0.8900-Stg0.8746

*RES 3: Stg0.8960 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746

*RES 2: Stg0.8894/00 1% volatility band, Sep 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8865/69 Congestion area Sep 19-20, Oct 2 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8837 @0737GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8801 Oct 2 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8770/75 Hourly congestion Sep 27-28

*SUP 4: Stg0.8743/46 Jul 14, Sep 27 lows

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900 resistance last month.

As a result, pressure returned to the downside with a low of Stg0.8746, just

above the important Stg0.8743 level. The subsequent recovery, on the back of

some near term oversold conditions, has resistance from Stg0.8865-Stg0.8869 now

in the way of another challenge to Stg0.8900. In the meantime, support from

between Stg0.8820-Stg0.8770 protects another test towards Stg0.8743.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Continues, $1263.2 The Next Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1304.7 Sep 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1295.5 4 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1290.5 Sep 29 high

*RES 1: $1285.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1270.5 @0741GMT

*SUP 1: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*SUP 2: $1263.2 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1237.7 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* Support from the Aug 25 low at $1274.7 yielded on Monday. Below

here and the minor $1267.4 level protects against a fall to the next Fibo

retrace level at $1263.2, this as we continue to move back down the 2017 bull

channel. As a result, nearest resistance of note currently comes from $1285.3

but back above the 4 week falling resistance line, at $1295.5 by time today, is

likely needed before any real recovery can begin.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]