MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1785-95 Resistance Keeps Immediate Interest Lower

*RES 4: $1.1880 Oct 12 high

*RES 3: $1.1858 Oct 19-Oct 20 highs

*RES 2: $1.1826/27 Hourly low Oct 19, hourly high Oct 20

*RES 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1764 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows

*SUP 2: $1.1705 Congestion area Oct 5-6

*SUP 3: $1.1681 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1649/51 Oct 6 low, 1.618 swing $1.1730-$1.1858

*COMMENTARY* Pressure back on the base of the recent consolidation, a low of

$1.1725 on Monday. The subsequent bounce helps to remove some of the resultant

oversold conditions but requires a move back through $1.1785-95 before any real

impetus will follow. Below $1.1725 and focus will switch to $1.1705 next, this

the protection to the lower 1% volatility band at $1.1681 and dual support

between $1.1651-$1.1649.

CABLE TECHS: Bounces After Test Towards Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3287 Oct 17 high

*RES 2: $1.3240/45 Congestion area Oct 16-17

*RES 1: $1.3229 Oct 19 high

*PRICE: $1.3203 @0849GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3140/58 Hourly support, Oct 23 low

*SUP 2: $1.3120 Hourly base Oct 20

*SUP 3: $1.3088 1% volatility band, Oct 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.3027/30 Oct 6 low, Jun 30 high

*COMMENTARY* Last Friday's dip to $1.3088 took us slightly below the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.3100 but was halted just above the lower 1% volatility band,

at $1.3088 by time today. This protects the downside from another tilt at the

$1.3030-$1.3027 area, which in turn protects the key $1.2983-$1.2979 region. The

subsequent bounce now has $1.3229 resistance ahead of the congested $1.3240-45

area. This then barring the way to a return to last Tuesday's $1.3287 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Support From Above Y113.15 Keeps Immediate Outlook Higher

*RES 4: Y114.66 1.618 swing of Y113.51-Y111.65

*RES 3: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 2: Y114.10 Oct 20 high

*RES 1: Y113.80/90 Hourly resistance, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y113.66 @0907GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.15/24 Oct 19 high, Oct 23 low

*SUP 2: Y112.88 Hourly basing area Oct 18

*SUP 3: Y112.55/60 Hourly congestion area Oct 19

*SUP 4: Y112.23/29 76.4% of Y111.65-Y114.10, Oct 19 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the strength to push through the upper 1% volatility band

last Friday, a high of Y114.10 seen but so far remains without a test to the

next upside obstacle, the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y114.33. In the meantime,

the loss of Y113.50 has seen a fall back towards Y113.15, as we correct recent

gains from Thursday's Y112.29 low. Directly through Y114.33 and look to the

swing target at Y114.66 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Eyeing The Chance For A Fresh Y134.41 Challenge

*RES 4: Y134.64 1.618 swing of Y133.50-Y131.66

*RES 3: Y134.41 Sep 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51

*RES 2: Y134.13 Oct 20 high

*RES 1: Y133.90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y133.70 @0913GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.10 Hourly basing area Oct 19, Oct 23 low

*SUP 2: Y132.80/85 Further hourly lows Oct 19

*SUP 3: Y132.47 Oct 19 low

*SUP 4: Y132.20/25 Congestion area Oct 13-17

*COMMENTARY* The Y131.75-Y131.66 area managed to hold recent setbacks, following

last month's assault on the long term 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y134.41. The

subsequent recovery last week has been impressive, a high of Y134.13 so far, as

we again return towards that Y134.41 high, the upper 1% volatility band at the

earlier Y134.39 level today. Meanwhile some near term overbought conditions have

seen a Y133.10 pullback but only below Y132.80 will spoil upside momentum.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Back Above Stg0.8940 Would Aid Near Term Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Stg0.9016/22 1% vol band, Oct 20 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8994 Hourly high Oct 20

*RES 2: Stg0.8980 Hourly recovery high Oct 20

*RES 1: Stg0.8940 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8927 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8886/97 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8855/56 61.8% Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032, Oct 16 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8837 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8813 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032

*COMMENTARY* Had been building for another assault on the key

Stg0.9026-Stg0.9032 area but has been thwarted by the upper 1% volatility band,

now at Stg0.9016 by time today. The subsequent fall below the Oct 18 high at

Stg0.8947 has triggered a correction, the Oct 18 low at Stg0.8897 coming under

pressure briefly on Monday, a low of Stg0.8886 before a bounce. Will need back

above Stg0.8940 for near term respite, else downside pressure will return.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2685-$1.2723 Potential On Break Above $1.2663

*RES 4: $1.2779/83 Aug 15 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2723 38.2% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 2: $1.2703 1.618 swing of $1.2600-$1.2433

*RES 1: $1.2685 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2661 @0937GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2614/22 Oct 23, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $1.2591 Oct 17 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2530/35 Hourly congestion area Oct 16-18

*SUP 4: $1.2520 Initial recovery high Oct 20, now support

*COMMENTARY* Now seeing an assault on the Aug 31 high at $1.2663, through here

and look to $1.2685 next, as we head towards the swing target at $1.2703 and

especially the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2723. In the meantime, support

rises slightly to $1.2622-$1.2614, loss of the latter would disappoint now and

suggest upside momentum is waning and some better correction of gains from

$1.2451 is required.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Fall Sees $1271.4 As Protecting The Oct 9 Low

*RES 4: $1299.0 Congestion area Oct 13-Oct 16

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 1: $1280.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1278.6 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.4 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low

*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 4: $1245.9 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break through $1291.5 resistance last week and as a

result downside pressure has seen $1276.2 support come under assault today.

Below here and the $1271.4 level represents next support and the protection

against a return to the Oct 9 low at $1260.7. In the interim, look to $1280.7

for initial resistance, $1286.1 above is then the bar to a fresh attempt on that

previously mentioned $1291.5 level.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]