MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1605-$1.1595 Protects Against A Fresh Down Move

*RES 4: $1.1790 Initial low Oct 20, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1753 Oct 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1675/80 Hourly highs Oct 26

*PRICE: $1.1637 @0935GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1595/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1574 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.1506 1.618 swing of $1.1649-$1.1880

*SUP 4: $1.1456 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Still finding near term support from above last Friday's $1.1574

low, as we continue to correct some near term oversold conditions. Having moved

above $1.1644, this still sees $1.1675-$1.1680 as the next resistance area of

note, before we reach the more important $1.1725-$1.1730 region. A move back

above the latter is needed to disrupt recent downside momentum. In the meantime,

look to $1.1605-$1.1595 as protection against a fresh down move.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3224-$1.3215 Support To Provide Intraday Directional Clues

*RES 4: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3381 Equality rise from $1.3070 to $1.3027-$1.3338

*RES 2: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 1: $1.3300/22 Hourly resistance, Nov 1 high

*PRICE: $1.3243 @0949GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3215/24 Oct 30 high, initial high Oct 31

*SUP 2: $1.3192 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: $1.3166 Hourly base Oct 30 

*SUP 4: $1.3127 Hourly base Oct 30 

*COMMENTARY* Rally pulled up at $1.3322 on Wednesday, just shy of the next

upside barrier between $1.3338-$1.3343. This a combination of the Oct 13 high

and a 50% Fibo retrace level. The upper 1% volatility band is also at $1.3339

today. As a result, some overbought hourly conditions have enforced a pullback

and with the loss of $1.3267, now looking to the more important $1.3224-$1.3215

area for intraday clues. In the interim, nearest resistance falls to $1.3300.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.70-Y113.60 To Hold If Recovery To Continue At This Stage

*RES 4: Y115.37 1.618 swing of Y114.45-Y112.96

*RES 3: Y114.90 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y114.45/50 Oct 27, Jul 11 highs

*RES 1: Y114.28 Nov 1 high

*PRICE: Y114.02 @0956GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.60/70 Hourly base Oct 31, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y113.28 Hourly high/low Oct 31

*SUP 3: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 4: Y112.70/72 Initial high Oct 19, 61.8% Fibo retrace

*COMMENTARY* Making the most of support found on Tuesday from Y112.96. The

subsequent recovery has been swift, on Wednesday heading through the pivotal

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y114.10, to a high of Y114.28. A sustained break

above and the Y114.45-Y114.50 region then becomes the next barrier higher,

perhaps to a Y114.90-Y115.37 rise. Meanwhile, Y113.70-Y113.60 still provides

support against some near term corrective action.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correction Faltering Ahead Of Y132.96-Y132.98 Resistance

*RES 4: Y134.33 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y133.78 76.4% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46

*RES 2: Y133.34 61.8% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46

*RES 1: Y132.96/98 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46

*PRICE: Y132.77 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.93 Initial recovery high Oct 30, now support

*SUP 3: Y131.75 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: Y131.41/46 Aug 2 high, Oct 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Still in the process of correcting some of the Y134.50-Y131.46 fall

seen over the last week. The latest rise through Y132.59 now opens the way for a

look at Y132.96-Y132.98 next. This a combination of a previous high from Oct 27

and a 50% Fibo retrace level. In the meantime, support also rises,

Y132.35-Y132.25 initially and this still currently protects against a more

sizeable pullback of this week's gains from Y131.46.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8805 And Then Stg0.8826 The Next Barriers To Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8880 Oct 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8856 Oct 16 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8826 Oct 27 low, hourly high Oct 27

*RES 1: Stg0.8805 Initial low Oct 31, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8800 @1017GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8737 1.618x Stg0.9032-Stg0.8856 from Stg0.9022

*SUP 3: Stg0.8719 Jun 16 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8692 61.8% of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306, 2% vol

*COMMENTARY* The pullback squeezed to a low of Stg0.8733 on Wednesday, just

slightly below the 1.618 projection target at Stg0.8737. The subsequent rally is

aided by some near term oversold conditions and still faces resistance from

Stg0.8805, before the way clears for a challenge to Stg0.8826 and perhaps a

higher correction of losses from last month's Stg0.9032 high. Meanwhile, nearest

support rises to Stg0.8745-55, loss of Stg0.8733 will target Stg0.8692 next.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.2807 -$1.2781 Support

*RES 4: $1.2984 1.618 swing of $1.2917-$1.2808

*RES 3: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.2880/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2840 @1022GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2807/08 23.6% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 27 low

*SUP 2: $1.2781 Oct 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2739 38.2% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2684 50% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* Last Friday saw a brief spike above the upper 2% volatility band,

as the upside moved to chase down the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2927. A high

of $1.2917 twice now, before succumbing to some overbought hourly conditions.

Now looking to $1.2807-$1.2781 support for next clues, loss would caution and

open up corrective potential of recent gains from $1.2451. While above, there is

scope to regroup and another attempt higher.

GOLD TECHS: $1282.6 Remains The Bar To Further Corrective Potential

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 1: $1282.6 Oct 26 high

*PRICE: $1276.2 @1026GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1267.7 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Aug 8 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 9 low

*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level gave way last week, resulting in a low of

$1263.8 on Friday, just ahead of the next key level, the Oct 9 low at $1260.7.

As a result, has become oversold on a near term basis and with the move back

above $1278.9, is now looking to correct further, the losses sustained since the

Oct 16 high at $1306.1. This now sees $1282.6 as the next bar to a continued

$1286.1-$1296.1 rise. Support rises to $1271.0-$1267.7.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]