MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Remains A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: $1.1927 Underside previously broken support line

*RES 3: $1.1880/87 Oct 12 high, 61.8% of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 2: $1.1861 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: $1.1825/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1800 @1044GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1745 Hourly base Nov 14

*SUP 2: $1.1700/05 Hourly highs/lows Nov 14

*SUP 3: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1623 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally reached $1.1861 on Wednesday, pulling up shy of a retest

to the more important $1.1880-$1.1887 area. Had become stretched on a near term

basis and the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Shooting Star' candle at

Wednesday's close is also a concern. Having lost $1.1785 there is scope for some

correction, $1.1745-$1.1700 the immediate interest below, last Friday's $1.1678

high of more significance lower.

CABLE TECHS: Poised For $1.3255-$1.3267 Challenge

*RES 4: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3322 Nov 1 high

*RES 2: $1.3292 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3267 76.4% of $1.3338-$1.3039

*PRICE: $1.3244 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3165/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3130/35 Nov 15, Nov 16 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3105 Hourly congestion area Nov 13-14

*SUP 4: $1.3062 Nov 13 low

*COMMENTARY* Held support from above $1.3062 on Tuesday, thereby allowing some

recovery from within the recent range. Has subsequently moved through $1.3188,

the 76.4% Fibo retrace of the previous $1.3230-$1.3062 fall and is now readying

to challenge more important resistance between $1.3255-$1.3267. Will need back

above the latter to swing overall bias back to the topside. In the meantime,

support comes from $1.3175-$1.3130, ahead of the congested $1.3105 area.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y112.38-Y112.25 Now The Immediate Protection To The Downside

*RES 4: Y113.91 Nov 14 high

*RES 3: Y113.58 Hourly recovery high Nov 14 

*RES 2: Y113.33 Nov 16 high

*RES 1: Y112.95/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y112.57 @1046GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*SUP 2: Y112.25 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y111.91 38.2% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 4: Y111.65 Oct 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Y112.38-Y112.25 still holding, a 76.4% Fibo retrace level, as well

as the lower 1% volatility band. That said, rallies are also finding it

difficult to make any headway through Y113.33-Y113.58 resistance. A move back

above the latter is required before the near term bear bias will be reversed and

allow for a renewed challenge to the week's Y113.91 high. Meanwhile, a loss of

Y112.38 allows a deeper Y111.91-Y111.65 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Intraday Direction Dependent On Y132.72-Y132.60 Support

*RES 4: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 3: Y134.23 1.618 swing of Y133.15-Y131.40

*RES 2: Y133.89/92 Nov 14 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y133.65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.85 @1046GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.72 Initial high Nov 14, now support

*SUP 2: Y132.60 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y132.40 Hourly congestion area

*SUP 4: Y131.93 Nov 13 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday saw a rally through Y132.74-Y132.85 resistance, thereby

confirming the near term bias for higher. Rally has reached a high of Y133.89 so

far, basically tracking the upper 1% volatility band. In the interim, support

from the hourly base at Y133.17 has given way, thereby allowing a deeper

Y132.72-Y132.60 corrective pullback. Above Y133.89 and rally can extend to

Y134.23-Y134.50 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Backs Away From Last Month's Stg0.9022-32 Highs

*RES 4: Stg0.9087 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8733

*RES 3: Stg0.9054 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8970/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8912 @1049GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8889 Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8863 Nov 8 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8837 Nov 13 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8811 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rise surpassed both 76.4% Fibo resistance from Stg0.8961

and the Oct 24 high at Stg0.8975. Wednesday continued the rally by making a

challenge toward last month's previous Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 highs. Overbought

near term and the appearance of a 'Shooting Star' candle at Wednesday's close is

a concern. With the loss of Stg0.8913 then Stg0.8889, currently protects against

anything more damaging.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Reaches 50% Fibo, $1.2820 Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.2856/60 76.4% of $1.2917-$1.2666, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.2820 Nov 7 high, 61.8% of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 1: $1.2791 50% Fibo of $1.2917-$1.2666

*PRICE: $1.2752 @1052GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2700/13 Hourly support, Nov 15 low

*SUP 2: $1.2666 Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*SUP 4: $1.2600/18 Oct 6 high, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* The decline found some support last Friday at $1.2666, just ahead

of the swing target at $1.2650 at the time. This the beginning of some

potentially congested support from between $1.2634-$1.2600. Only below the

latter will free up the opportunity for a further $1.2547 fall. In the meantime,

the move back above $1.2715-$1.2725 allows for a higher $1.2791 recovery, ahead

of the Nov 7 high at $1.2820. Nearest support now from $1.2713-$1.2700.

GOLD TECHS: $1289.9 Fibo Resistance Again Bars The Way Higher

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 2: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 1: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*PRICE: $1283.6 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1273.8 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* The move below the key $1271.8 support was brief and quickly

reversed on Tuesday. Wednesday's further rise above $1284.3 also encouraged, as

we move back up the recent range. Through here and then the $1289.9 Fibo level

once again becomes the marker to cross, before the upside is released to make

further inroads into the losses sustained since last month's $1306.1 high.

Meanwhile, $1273.8 support should hold any setbacks, or caution advised again.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]