MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1775-$1.1785 The Immediate Resistance To Any Recovery

*RES 4: $1.1861 Nov 15 high

*RES 3: $1.1822/26 Nov 17 high, 76.4% of $1.1861-$1.1713

*RES 2: $1.1809 Nov 20 high

*RES 1: $1.1775/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1770 @0903GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1713/22 Nov 21, Nov 17 lows

*SUP 2: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1668 1.618 swing of $1.1722-$1.1809

*SUP 4: $1.1623/26 Nov 10 low, 76.4% of $1.1554-$1.1861

*COMMENTARY* Pressured Friday's $1.1722 low, a dip to $1.1713 on Tuesday. While

this area holds, there is scope to see a $1.1775-$1.1785 bounce, as we correct

losses from Monday's $1.1809 high. Will actually require a move back through the

higher $1.1822-$1.1826 area however, before the near term bias can turn positive

again. Direct loss of $1.1713 will target $1.1678-$1.1668, the latter the swing

target of Monday's $1.1722-$1.1809 recovery.

CABLE TECHS: 1% Volatility Band In Way Of Return To Top Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 2: $1.3317/22 1% volatility band, Nov 1 high

*RES 1: $1.3280 Nov 20 high 

*PRICE: $1.3248 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3210 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3186 Nov 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.3170 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.3135 Hourly high Nov 13, Nov 16 low

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3280 on Monday as the upside tries to claw back losses

from the top of the recent range between $1.3322-$1.3338. Ahead of here, still

has to deal with the upper 1% volatility band, situated at $1.3317 by time

today. Support for the time being remains from above 1.3210, this area holding

setbacks on Monday. Loss will caution and suggest a deeper $1.3186-$1.3115 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressure Returns To Y111.91-Y111.65 Support Zone

*RES 4: Y113.69 Nov 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y113.33 Nov 16 high

*RES 2: Y112.95/00 Hourly congestion Nov 15-16

*RES 1: Y112.72/74 Nov 20 high, Nov 16 low

*PRICE: Y112.01 @0911GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.89/91 Nov 20 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 2: Y111.65 Oct 16 low

*SUP 3: Y111.38 1.618 swing of Y111.89-Y112.72

*SUP 4: Y111.03 50% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a drop to Y111.89, just inside the next key area of

support from between Y111.91-Y111.65. The latter an outstanding low from the

middle of last month. In the meantime, some oversold hourly conditions have been

repaired, Y112.74 proving an immediate barrier to a higher Y112.95-Y113.00

recovery. Pressure currently back on Y111.89, below here and Y111.65 will see a

Y111.38-Y111.03 fall next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Struggles To Recover Y132.27-Y132.53 Resistance

*RES 4: Y133.25/30 Hourly congestion area Nov 15

*RES 3: Y132.80 Nov 15 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y132.47/53 Nov 20 high, hourly resistance

*RES 1: Y132.27 Nov 21 high

*PRICE: Y131.85 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.58 Nov 21 low

*SUP 2: Y131.45 Hourly base Nov 20

*SUP 3: Y131.03/10 50% of Y127.56-Y134.50, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y130.62 Sep 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally tracked and was contained by the upper 1% volatility band

last week, thereby failing to make any inroads into the previous Y134.50 high.

The subsequent fall has been swift, testing toward the base of the recent range

and lower 1% volatility band between Y131.10-Y131.03. Some near term oversold

conditions have since prevailed, allowing a bounce. This sees Y132.27-Y132.53 as

immediate resistance. Lose Y131.03 and next targets Y130.37-Y130.21.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8885-Stg0.8908 The Bar To Any Better Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8949/54 61.8% Fibo, Nov 17 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8928/35 50% Fibo, Hourly congestion Nov 16-17

*RES 2: Stg0.8905/08 Nov 20 high, 38.2% Stg0.9013-Stg0.8842

*RES 1: Stg0.8885/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8883 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8837/40 Nov 13 low, 61.8% Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013

*SUP 2: Stg0.8805/11 1% volatility band, Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8791/99 Nov 7 low, 76.4% Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Faltered at Stg0.9013 last week, shy of the previous month's

Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 highs. Wednesday's lower close, then saw the appearance of a

bearish 'Shooting Star' candle. This has resulted in a sharp fall, which on

Tuesday broke below the 76.4% Fibo level at Stg0.8859. Immediate attention now

on Stg0.8837-40, below would switch to Stg0.8811-Stg0.8791. Resistance from

between Stg0.8885-Stg0.8908 currently in way of any better recovery.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Brief Spike Higher Before Retreating Toward $1.2743

*RES 4: $1.2880 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2856/60 76.4% of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 2: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*RES 1: $1.2805/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2771 @0936GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2743/49 76.4% Fibo of $1.2714-$1.2837, Nov 21 low

*SUP 2: $1.2714 Nov 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.2666 Nov 10 low

*SUP 4: $1.2625 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from the month's earlier $1.2666 low made it to

$1.2837 on Tuesday, briefly spiking the Nov 7 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $1.2820 but shy of $1.2860. Has subsequently retreated, aided by some near

term overbought conditions. The 76.4% Fibo retrace at 1.2743 now becomes the

support to watch, needing a hold here, if the rally is to continue at this

stage. Loss will caution and eventually see pressure return to $1.2714-$1.2666.

GOLD TECHS: Pulling Back After Unable To Overcome $1296.1 Resistance 

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 2: $1290.1 Hourly base Nov 17, now resistance

*RES 1: $1286.4 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1284.1 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Failed to break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1296.1 last

Friday, the subsequent fallout gaining pace, after the move back below $1289.9.

A low of $1274.6 on Monday, slightly below the preferred $1275.2 support.

Oversold as a result of this two day fall, so looking to $1286.4 now for initial

clues, $1290.1 on any break higher. Below $1274.6 would concern and return

pressure to the base of the recent range, above the Oct 6 low at $1260.7.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]