MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of $1.1966 Fibo Resistance 

*RES 4: $1.2034 Sep 20 high

*RES 3: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 2: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 1: $1.1920/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1882 @1050GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1861 Nov 15 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.1837 Nov 24 low

*SUP 3: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, now support

*COMMENTARY* Having moved through the swing target at $1.1952, Monday's rally

was unable to deal with Fibo resistance at $1.1966. A high of $1.1961 seen

before retreating on the back of some overbought hourly conditions. Now looking

to support from between $1.1861-$1.1837 to stem the fall, if a renewed upside

challenge is to be seen at this juncture. Loss of $1.1837 would allow a deeper

$1.1809-$1.1773 fall.

CABLE TECHS: Monday's Rise Contained By The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3456 Sep 28 high

*RES 3: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 2: $1.3383/95 Nov 27 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3350/58 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3301 @1105GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3279/80 Nov 24 low, Nov 20 high

*SUP 2: $1.3245 Congestion area Nov 20-22

*SUP 3: $1.3213 Nov 22 low

*SUP 4: $1.3170 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a further push higher but the rally was contained within

the $1.3374-$1.3384 resistance area. The latter the 1% volatility band, which

once again proved difficult to handle, this has moved to the slightly higher

$1.3395 level today. In the interim, the subsequent setback below $1.3300, now

has $1.3280-$1.3245 for support and these should catch any fall if recent upside

momentum is to be retained.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.45-Y111.50 Presents Initial Resistance To Any Recovery

*RES 4: Y112.30/35 Hourly congestion area Nov 21-22

*RES 3: Y111.89 Nov 17 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y111.69 Nov 24 high

*RES 1: Y111.45/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y111.30 @1112GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.82/84 1% volatility band, Nov 27 low

*SUP 2: Y110.69 Sep 13 high, 1.618 swing of Y111.07-Y111.69

*SUP 3: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 4: Y109.88 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the decline continue, leaving Y111.89-Y111.65 support

in it's wake. Yesterday, the fall broke below the next support of note, the 50%

Fibo retrace level at Y111.03. The loss here, now sees dual support from Y110.69

as the next potential target area, ahead of the 61.8%Fibo retrace at Y110.15.

Some earlier support seen from around the lower 1% volatility band but

resistance falls to Y111.45-Y111.50, the Y111.69-Y111.89 region above.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recent Range Guided By 1% Volatility Bands

*RES 4: Y133.60/71 1% vol band, 76.4% of Y134.50-Y131.17

*RES 3: Y133.24 61.8% of Y134.50-Y131.17, Nov 24 high

*RES 2: Y132.90/00 Hourly lows/highs Nov 24-27

*RES 1: Y132.70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.31 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.95 Hourly base Nov 24

*SUP 2: Y131.65 Congestion area Nov 21-23

*SUP 3: Y131.17/23 Nov 17, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 4: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Has been trading within a range over the last month that has been

set by the parameters of the 1% volatility bands. The latest rise from above the

50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.03, now has resistance from Y132.70-Y133.00,

ahead of Friday's Y133.24 high and the upper band at Y133.60 by time today. The

subsequent fall back below Y132.20 now sees Y131.95-Y131.65 currently of more

consequence below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Aims To Test Stg0.8974 Fibo Resistance Next

*RES 4: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8998 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8967/74 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Stg0.9013-Stg0.8842

*PRICE: Stg0.8935 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8910/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8893 Nov 24 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8870 Congestion area Nov 21-23

*SUP 4: Stg0.8837/40 Nov 13 low, 61.8% Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013

*COMMENTARY* Found a base above Stg0.8840-Stg0.8837 support early last week,

subsequently correcting losses sustained since the mid month high at Stg0.9013.

The most recent rise through Stg0.8949-Stg0.8954, now sees the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8974 as the next barrier to the recovery. Meanwhile,

support moves to Stg0.8915-Stg0.8910, loss would caution and allow a deeper

Stg0.8893-Stg0.8870 setback. Stg0.8998-Stg0.9013 on break above Stg0.8974.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Continues, $1.2837-$1.2858 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2915/17 Oct 31, Oct 27 highs

*RES 3: $1.2858 76.4% Fibo of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 2: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*RES 1: $1.2805/08 Hourly congestion Nov 20-21, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2790 @1129GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2725 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2666/73 Nov 10, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2618/31 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.2600 Oct 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has tested initial resistance from around $1.2805

today, a slightly higher $1.2808 seen before some near term overbought

conditions have intervened. The momentum will remain with the upside however,

while support from above $1.2725 is able to contain any setbacks. Above $1.2808

and last week's $1.2837 high and more importantly the 76.4% Fibo retrace at

$1.2858 are next obstacles.

GOLD TECHS: Pushing Higher But So Far $1299.7 Contains Rally

*RES 4: $1320.6 61.8% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 3: $1309.2 50% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 2: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 1: $1299.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1294.0 @1132GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.7 Nov 23 low

*SUP 2: $1279.1 Nov 22 low

*SUP 3: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 4: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to basically play the $1296.1-$1269.9 range, looking to

find the vulnerable side. Currently, a move above $1296.1 can be halted around

$1299.7, ahead of more prominent targets at $1306.1-$1309.2. While

$1296.1-$1299.7 caps, then the risk remains for a slide back down the recent

range, last Thursday's $1285.7 low, then the protection against a further

$1279.1-$1274.6 fall, ahead of that range base at $1269.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]