MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting After $1.1966 Fibo Resistance Caps Rise

*RES 4: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 3: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 2: $1.1920/29 Nov 28 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1826

*RES 1: $1.1891/01 Nov 27 low, hourly high Nov 28

*PRICE: $1.1865 @0740GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1826 Nov 28 low

*SUP 2: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1757 50% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961

*COMMENTARY* Moved through the swing target at $1.1952 on Monday but was unable

to deal with Fibo resistance at $1.1966. A high of $1.1961 before retreating on

the back of some overbought hourly conditions. With the subsequent loss of

$1.1861-$1.1837 support, this now has scope to see a further $1.1809-$1.1773

fall. In the interim, resistance comes initially from $1.1891-$1.1901 but back

through $1.1920-$1.1929 needed to renew upside confidence.

CABLE TECHS: Focus Once Again On The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3510 76.4% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3483 1.618 swing of $1.3383-$1.3221

*RES 2: $1.3456 Sep 28 high

*RES 1: $1.3418/25 61.8% of $1.3659-$1.3027, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.3411 @0754GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3336 Hourly base Nov 28

*SUP 2: $1.3310 Nov 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.3279 Nov 24 low

*SUP 4: $1.3221 Nov 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday's push higher was contained at $1.3383, by the 1% volatility

band at the time. The subsequent fall to $1.3221, was swift and almost

completely corrected recent gains from the Nov 21-22 lows at $1.3210-$1.3213.

Fresh upside interest was then aroused and the move back above $1.3345 has swung

near term bias back to higher and indeed that 1% band again, which is at $1.3425

today. Above and $1.3483-$1.3510 is the next target area. Support now $1.3336.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.69-Y111.89 The Bar To Further Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Y112.72 Nov 20 high

*RES 3: Y112.30/35 Hourly congestion area Nov 21-22

*RES 2: Y111.89 Nov 17 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y111.69 Nov 24 high

*PRICE: Y111.45 @0804GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.06 Hourly base Nov 28

*SUP 2: Y110.84 Nov 27 low

*SUP 3: Y110.69 Sep 13 high, 1.618 swing of Y111.07-Y111.69

*SUP 4: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the decline continue, breaking below Y111.89-Y111.65

support. Monday, the fall broke below the next support of note, the 50% Fibo

retrace level at Y111.03. Some earlier interest from the lower 1% volatility

band at Y110.72 but dual support from Y110.69 is the next potential target area,

ahead of the 61.8% Fibo retrace at Y110.15. Resistance in the meantime, comes

from Y111.69-Y111.89. Back above the latter needed to improve recovery chances.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recent Range Still Guided By 1% Volatility Bands

*RES 4: Y133.55/71 1% vol band, 76.4% of Y134.50-Y131.17

*RES 3: Y133.24 61.8% of Y134.50-Y131.17, Nov 24 high

*RES 2: Y132.90/00 Hourly lows/highs Nov 24-27

*RES 1: Y132.57 Nov 28 high

*PRICE: Y132.31 @0812GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.85/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.65/72 Congestion area Nov 21-23, Nov 28 low

*SUP 3: Y131.17/23 Nov 17, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 4: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Has been trading within a range over the last month that has been

set by the parameters of the 1% volatility bands. The latest rise from above the

50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.03, now has resistance from Y132.57-Y133.00,

ahead of Friday's Y133.24 high and the upper band at Y133.55 by time today.

Meanwhile, support continues from within Y131.90-Y131.65, loss of the latter

would be a near term concern.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fresh Fall Has Stg0.8840 Protecting Stg0.8810-Stg0.8799

*RES 4: Stg0.8945/50 Hourly congestion Nov 24-27

*RES 3: Stg0.8915 Initial base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8893 Nov 24 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8873 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8843 @0826GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8840 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013

*SUP 2: Stg0.8810 Equality fall from 0.8981 to 0.9013-0.8842

*SUP 3: Stg0.8799 76.4% of Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain the break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Stg0.8974 on Tuesday, a high of Stg0.8982 before losing ground, which was

exacerbated by the loss of Stg0.8915 support. Below here has allowed a return to

the Nov 21 low at Stg0.8842 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at Stg0.8840. This area

is currently the protection against a deeper Stg0.8810-Stg0.8799 fall. In the

interim, resistance From Stg0.8873-Stg0.8893, with that Stg0.8915 level above.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Still Eyes $1.2837-$1.2858 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2915/17 Oct 31, Oct 27 highs

*RES 3: $1.2894 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2858 76.4% Fibo of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 1: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*PRICE: $1.2818 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2748/54 Nov 24 high, Nov 28 low

*SUP 2: $1.2715 Hourly congestion area Nov 23-24

*SUP 3: $1.2666/73 Nov 10, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2639 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery finally broke through initial $1.2805 resistance on

Tuesday, after some intervening overbought conditions allowed a $1.2754 setback.

This allows momentum to remain with the upside and to chase down last week's

$1.2837 high. Above and more importantly the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2858

andthe upper 1% volatility band at $1.2894 are next obstacles. Support from

$1.2754-$1.2748, with $1.2715 below.

GOLD TECHS: Pushing Higher But So Far $1299.7 Contains Rally

*RES 4: $1320.6 61.8% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 3: $1309.2 50% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 2: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 1: $1299.3/7 Nov 27 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1296.3 @0833GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.7 Nov 23 low

*SUP 2: $1279.1 Nov 22 low

*SUP 3: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 4: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to basically play the $1296.1-$1269.9 range, looking to

find the vulnerable side. Currently, a move above $1296.1 can be halted around

$1299.7, ahead of more prominent targets at $1306.1-$1309.2. While

$1296.1-$1299.7 caps, then the risk remains for a slide back down the recent

range, last Thursday's $1285.7 low, then the protection against a further

$1279.1-$1274.6 fall, ahead of that range base at $1269.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]