MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1809 back Under Pressure As Decline Continues

*RES 4: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1940 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: $1.1910 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.1877 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1827 @1620GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, Nov 30 low, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 2: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, 76.4% Fibo

*SUP 3: $1.1746 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1728 1.618 swing of $1.1809-$1.1940

*COMMENTARY* Back to testing $1.1809 support again after failed attempts to

recover over the last couple of days. Can allow an overshoot to $1.1799-$1.1788

but a loss of $1.1773 would concern and suggest a deeper correction underway,

with $1.1746-$1.1728 the next region of support ahead of the Nov 21 low at

$1.1713. As a result, resistance falls to the day's $1.1877 high but likely

needing a move back above the now pivotal $1.1910 for impact.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3462-$1.3510 Resistance After Hold Around $1.3374 Support

*RES 4: $1.3550/65 Dec 1 high, projection target from $1.3062

*RES 3: $1.3505/10 Hourly congestion area Nov 30-Dec 4

*RES 2: $1.3483 Hourly high Dec 4

*RES 1: $1.3462 Initial intraday low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3455 @16300GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3370/74 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3338/45 Oct 13 high, 1.618 swing $1.3419-$1.3539

*SUP 3: $1.3299 76.4% Fibo of $1.3221-$1.3550

*SUP 4: $1.3259 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* After another attempt to move higher on Monday, the rally faltering

at $1.3539, we have seen another fall, this time below $1.3414 and lately

challenging $1.3374 support. Below here and the $1.3345-$1.3338 area becomes the

next focus, as we continue to correct gains from the Nov 28 low at $1.3221. In

the meantime, the move back above $1.3414-$1.3419 sees $1.3462-$1.3483 as

resistance, with $1.3505-$1.3510 currently of more consequence higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pace Of Rally Once Again Hampered By Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y114.19 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y113.82/91 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 14 high

*RES 2: Y113.25/33 61.8% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high

*RES 1: Y113.07/09 1% volatility band, Dec 4 high

*PRICE: Y112.81 @1631GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.30/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.81 Hourly base Dec 1

*SUP 3: Y111.38/40 Nov 29, Dec 1 lows

*SUP 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low

*COMMENTARY* A high of Y112.88 seen earlier on Friday, before collapsing

spectacularly and correcting almost by 76.4% the recovery from last week's

Y110.84 low. Then became oversold on the day and the subsequent recovery through

Y112.55 once again switched focus to the topside. The upper 1% volatility band

at Y113.07 by time today, is currently hampering any further upside progress.

Support now Y112.40-Y112.30 with Y111.81 below. Loss would caution.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band In Way Of Renewed Upside Challenge

*RES 4: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: Y134.07/18 Dec 4 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y133.75/85 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y133.35 @1632GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.92 Dec 1 low

*SUP 3: Y132.65 Nov 30 low

*SUP 4: Y132.39 Initial rally high Nov 29, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the most recent range top at Y133.89 on Friday and then

made a beeline straight towards the Oct 25 high and major range top at 134.50. A

high of Y134.38, before submitting to some heavily overbought hourly conditions

and a Y132.92 setback. Will need to regain levels back above Y134.18, the upper

1% volatility band, before once again being in a position to challenge Y134.50.

Support meanwhile rises to Y133.20 and then that Y132.92 again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rallies After Test To The Swing Target At Stg0.8756

*RES 4: Stg0.8950 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8930 Congestion area Nov 27-28

*RES 2: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8870/80 Hourly res, hourly recovery high Nov 28

*PRICE: Stg0.8787 @1633GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8780/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981, Dec 4 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found a base on Monday at the swing target at Stg0.8756, this in

the midst of some congested support levels from between Stg0.8776 and Stg0.8733,

the Nov 1 low. The resultant rally aided by some oversold conditions, has

overcome Stg0.8847-Stg0.8861 resistance, now leaving Stg0.8870-Stg0.8880 as the

brake to a better Stg0.8900-Stg0.8930 recovery, as we claw back losses from the

Nov 28 high at Stg0.8982. Nearest support Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Held By Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*RES 3: $1.2804 Hourly low Nov 29, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2768 Hourly recovery high Dec 1

*RES 1: $1.2717/27 Hourly resistance, hourly high Dec 4

*PRICE: $1.2690 @1640GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2640/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2625 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2614/18 Oct 23 low, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2600 Oct 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall again on Tuesday, losing support from

$1.2666-$1.2652 in the process. So far the decline has been arrested by the

lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2625 by time today. As a result has become

oversold in the near term but will require a move back above $1.2717-$1.2727

before the impetus for a higher correction of losses from last week's $1.2909

high will be forthcoming. In the interim, $1.2650-$1.2640 becomes support.

GOLD TECHS: Overall Focus Returns To Key Support Between $1262.3-$1260.7

*RES 4: $1292.5 Hourly base Nov 27, now resistance

*RES 3: $1289.3 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: $1283.0 Hourly resistanceHourly high Dec 4

*RES 1: $1277.6 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1262.5 @1647GMT

*SUP 1: $1262.3 2017 bull channel support line

*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make a break through the top of the recent range, being

capped by $1299.3-$1299.7 resistance. The subsequent fall back within the range

has been swift, today losing support from $1269.9 and exposing the 2017 bull

channel base at $1262.3 and the Oct 2 low at $1260.7. Have to hold the latter or

overall bias will swing back to the downside and further corrections of gains

initially from $1204.8 and potentially from $1122.6. Resistance $1277.6-$1283.0.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]