MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Back Under Pressure As Decline Continues, $1.1773

Important

*RES 4: $1.1915/20 Hourly congestion highs Nov 30-Dec 1

*RES 3: $1.1877 Dec 5 high

*RES 2: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 1: $1.1825/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1794 @0910GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, 76.4% Fibo

*SUP 2: $1.1757/64 50% of $1.1554-$1.1961, hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.1740 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1728 1.618 swing of $1.1809-$1.1940

*COMMENTARY* The decline is now within striking distance of the key near term

support from around the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1773. This of the

$1.1713-$1.1961 rise seen at the back end of last month. Below and there is

still plenty of congested support from between $1.1764-$1.1728 that is capable

of providing protection to the next key area between $1.1713-$1.1709. Meanwhile,

resistance is falling $1.1825-$1.1848 the immediate brake to any recovery.

CABLE TECHS: Pushing Lower, $1.3437 Now Key Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3550/65 Dec 1 high, projection target from $1.3062

*RES 3: $1.3505/10 Hourly congestion area Nov 30-Dec 4

*RES 2: $1.3461/70 Hourly high Dec 5, congestion Dec 4-5

*RES 1: $1.3425/37 Hourly resistance, Dec 6 high

*PRICE: $1.3382 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3358 Dec 6 low

*SUP 2: $1.3338/45 Oct 13 high, 1.618 swing $1.3419-$1.3539

*SUP 3: $1.3314 1.618 swing of $1.3370-$1.3461

*SUP 4: $1.3299 76.4% Fibo of $1.3221-$1.3550

*COMMENTARY* Still pushing lower, the $1.3370-74 area giving way on Wednesday, a

low of $1.3358 so far, as we approach the next key area between $1.3345-$1.3338.

Resistance meanwhile, is from between $1.3425 and yesterday's $1.3437 high. Any

hopes of a recovery would currently receive a boost with a move back above here,

with $1.3461-$1.3510 then the next barrier to surmount. Below $1.3338 and look

to the swing target at $1.3314 and Fibo retrace at $1.3299.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y112.65-Y112.87 The Barrier To This Recovery

*RES 4: Y113.25/33 61.8% Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high, 1% vol

*RES 3: Y113.09 Dec 4 high

*RES 2: Y112.87 Dec 5 high

*RES 1: Y112.65/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y112.64 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.99 Dec 6 low

*SUP 3: Y111.73/81 Nov 30 low, hourly base Dec 1

*SUP 4: Y111.38/40 Nov 29, Dec 1 lows

*COMMENTARY* The hold at Y111.99 on Wednesday, kept the more important

Y111.81-Y111.73 support safe for the time being. The subsequent recovery has now

to deal with Y112.65-Y112.87 resistance, if this latest rally is to be more than

just corrective of the fall seen from Monday's Y113.09 peak. Support in the

meantime comes from the earlier Y112.15 level, a loss would caution now and

suggest the recovery was in trouble.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.92 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 3: Y133.75 Dec 5 high

*RES 2: Y133.27 Dec 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.92 Dec 1 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.82 @1004GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.40/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*SUP 3: Y131.97/99 76.4% of Y131.23-Y134.48, Nov 29 low

*SUP 4: Y131.70/72 1% volatility band, Nov 23 low

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y132.26 on Wednesday as we remain entrenched within the

midst of the Y134.41-Y131.17 range that has been in the making since the latter

part of September this year. Nearer term, Y132.92 provides immediate resistance

and Y132.40-50 support. Above Y132.92 and there is scope to increase gains

toward Y133.27-Y133.75 next. Whereas, lose Y132.40 and that Y132.26 low comes

back into play, Y131.99-Y131.70 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Consolidating After Test To The Swing Target At Stg0.8756

*RES 4: Stg0.8930 Congestion area Nov 27-28

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8868/80 Dec 5 high, hourly recovery high Nov 28

*RES 1: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8809 @1010GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8780/90 Dec 5 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981, Dec 4 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found a base on Monday at the swing target at Stg0.8756, this in

the midst of some congested support levels from between Stg0.8776 and Stg0.8733,

the Nov 1 low. The resultant rally aided by some oversold conditions, overcame

Stg0.8861 resistance but still has Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 as the brake to a better

Stg0.8900-Stg0.8930 recovery, as we claw back losses from the Nov 28 high at

Stg0.8982. Nearest support Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Now Meets $1.2837-$1.2842 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.2903/09 1% volatility band, Nov 30 high

*RES 2: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1

*RES 1: $1.2837/42 Nov 21 high, 76.4% of $1.2909-$1.2624

*PRICE: $1.2818 @1032GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2775/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2707 Initial high Dec 6, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2675 Hourly congestion Dec 4-Dec 6

*COMMENTARY* Held on Tuesday, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between $1.2705-10

resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has

surpassed all near term resistance with the exception of the Nov 21 high at

$1.2837 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842. This area remains key to any

further upside hopes. Support $1.2785-$1.2775 loss would concern.

GOLD TECHS: Bias Back To Lower After Loss Of Key Supports

*RES 4: $1289.3 Dec 1 high

*RES 3: $1283.0 Hourly recovery high Nov 30

*RES 2: $1277.6 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: $1270.4 Nov 30 low

*PRICE: $1255.0 @1043GMT

*SUP 1: $1255.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1242.5 1.618x $1299.3-$1270.4 from $1289.3

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make a break through the top of the recent range, being

capped by $1299.3-$1299.7 resistance. The subsequent fall back to the base of

the range and beyond has been swift. This has resulted in the loss of the 2017

bull channel base at $1262.3 and the Oct 2 low at $1260.7. This swings overall

bias back to the downside and further corrections of gains initially from

$1204.8 and potentially from $1122.6. Resistance $1270.4-$1277.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]