MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Back Under Pressure As Decline Continues, $1.1773

Important

*RES 4: $1.1915/20 Hourly congestion highs Nov 30-Dec 1

*RES 3: $1.1877 Dec 5 high

*RES 2: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 1: $1.1825/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1794 @1645GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, 76.4% Fibo

*SUP 2: $1.1757/64 50% of $1.1554-$1.1961, hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.1740 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1728 1.618 swing of $1.1809-$1.1940

*COMMENTARY* The decline is now within striking distance of the key near term

support from around the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1773. This of the

$1.1713-$1.1961 rise seen at the back end of last month. Below and there is

still plenty of congested support from between $1.1764-$1.1728 that is capable

of providing protection to the next key area between $1.1713-$1.1709. Meanwhile,

resistance is falling $1.1825-$1.1848 the immediate brake to any recovery.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Hopes Would Be Boosted By $1.3437 Break

*RES 4: $1.3550/65 Dec 1 high, projection target from $1.3062

*RES 3: $1.3495/05 Hourly congestion area Nov 30-Dec 4

*RES 2: $1.3461/70 Hourly high Dec 5, congestion Dec 4-5

*RES 1: $1.3425/37 Hourly resistance, Dec 6 high

*PRICE: $1.3428 @1655GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3375/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3348 Initial intraday recovery high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3314/20 1.618 swing of $1.3370-$1.3461. i'day low

*SUP 4: $1.3299 76.4% Fibo of $1.3221-$1.3550

*COMMENTARY* Continued to push lower earlier on, after the $1.3370-74 area gave

way on Wednesday, it was the turn of  $1.3345-$1.3338 today. Finally found a

base at $1.3320, just above the swing target at $1.3314 and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace at $1.3299. The subsequent recovery has been relatively quick but now

needs to deal with $1.3425-$1.3437 resistance. Any hopes of a recovery would

receive a boost with a move back above here, $1.3461-$1.3505 then higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Dec 5 High At Y112.87 The Barrier To This Recovery

*RES 4: Y113.82 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 3: Y113.25/33 61.8% Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high, 1% vol

*RES 2: Y113.09 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: Y112.80/87 Intraday high, Dec 5 high

*PRICE: Y112.71 @1700GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.20/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.99 Dec 6 low

*SUP 3: Y111.73/81 Nov 30 low, hourly base Dec 1

*SUP 4: Y111.38/40 Nov 29, Dec 1 lows

*COMMENTARY* The hold at Y111.99 on Wednesday, kept the more important

Y111.81-Y111.73 support safe for the time being. The subsequent recovery has now

to deal with Y112.87 resistance, if this latest rally is to be more than just

corrective of the fall seen from Monday's Y113.09 peak. Support in the meantime

comes from the earlier Y112.30-Y112.20 area, a loss would caution now and

suggest the recovery was in trouble.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.92-97 Now The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 3: Y133.75 Dec 5 high

*RES 2: Y133.27 Dec 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.92/97 Dec 1 low, Intraday high

*PRICE: Y132.82 @1702GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.40/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*SUP 3: Y131.97/99 76.4% of Y131.23-Y134.48, Nov 29 low

*SUP 4: Y131.70/72 1% volatility band, Nov 23 low

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y132.26 on Wednesday as we remain entrenched within the

midst of the Y134.41-Y131.17 range that has been in the making since the latter

part of September this year. Nearer term, Y132.92-97 provides immediate

resistance and Y132.40-50 support. Above Y132.97 and there is scope to increase

gains toward Y133.27-Y133.75 next. Whereas, lose Y132.40 and that Y132.26 low

comes back into play, Y131.99-Y131.70 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Consolidating After Test To The Swing Target At Stg0.8756

*RES 4: Stg0.8930 Congestion area Nov 27-28

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8868/80 Dec 5 high, hourly recovery high Nov 28

*RES 1: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8781 @1703GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8780 Dec 5 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981, Dec 4 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found a base on Monday at the swing target at Stg0.8756, this in

the midst of some congested support levels from between Stg0.8776 and Stg0.8733,

the Nov 1 low. The resultant rally aided by some oversold conditions, overcame

Stg0.8861 resistance but still has Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 as the brake to a better

Stg0.8900-Stg0.8930 recovery, as we claw back losses from the Nov 28 high at

Stg0.8982. Nearest support Stg0.8780.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2885-$1.2893 The Bar To $1.2904-$1.2927 Return

*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 2: $1.2904/09 1% volatility band, Nov 30 high

*RES 1: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.2840 @1711GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2805/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2775/85 Hourly basing area Dec 6

*SUP 3: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2707 Initial high Dec 6, now support

*COMMENTARY* Held on Tuesday, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between $1.2705-10

resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has

surpassed all near term resistance including the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842.

The $1.2885-$1.2893 area now the remaining barrier to further upside hopes.

Support $1.2810-1.2775 loss would concern.

GOLD TECHS: Bias Back To Lower After Loss Of Key Supports

*RES 4: $1289.3 Dec 1 high

*RES 3: $1283.0 Hourly recovery high Nov 30

*RES 2: $1277.6 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: $1270.4 Nov 30 low

*PRICE: $1253.1 @1715GMT

*SUP 1: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 2: $1242.5 1.618x $1299.3-$1270.4 from $1289.3

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make a break through the top of the recent range, being

capped by $1299.3-$1299.7 resistance. The subsequent fall back to the base of

the range and beyond has been swift. This has resulted in the loss of the 2017

bull channel base at $1262.3 and the Oct 2 low at $1260.7. This swings overall

bias back to the downside and further corrections of gains initially from

$1204.8 and potentially from $1122.6. Resistance $1270.4-$1277.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]