MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1809-$1.1815 Needed To Generate Fresh Upside

Focus

*RES 4: $1.1906 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1730

*RES 3: $1.1873/77 61.8% of $1.1961-$1.1730, Dec 5 high

*RES 2: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 1: $1.1809/15 Nov 30 low, Dec 7 high

*PRICE: $1.1794 @1025GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1745/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1728/30 1.618 swing $1.1809-$1.1940, Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*COMMENTARY* The decline broke below key near term support from around the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.1773.  Below and there is still plenty of congested

support now from between $1.1728-$1.$1.1694, that is capable of providing

protection to the next key level, another 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.1650.

Resistance from 1.1795 is under challenge but back above $1.1809-$1.1815 needed

to generate fresh upside interest.

CABLE TECHS: 4 Week Rising Support Line Under Pressure

*RES 4: $1.3550 Dec 1 high

*RES 3: $1.3521 Dec 8 high

*RES 2: $1.3485 Dec 7 high

*RES 1: $1.3435/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3373 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3351 4 week rising support line

*SUP 2: $1.3314/20 1.618 swing $1.3370-$1.3461, Dec 7 low

*SUP 3: $1.3298 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.3221 Nov 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally found a base at $1.3320 last Thursday, just above the swing

target at $1.3314 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3298. The subsequent recovery

has not so far been able to sustain a move back above $1.3505, a high of $1.3521

on Friday before slipping back again. Now looking to the 4 week rising support

line at $1.3351 to protect the downside from another assault. Meanwhile,

$1.3435-$1.3485 is resistance.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Has Y113.77-Y113.82 Resistance Ahead

*RES 4: Y114.93 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high

*RES 1: Y113.77/82 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*PRICE: Y113.42 @1032GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09/13 Dec 4 high, Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: Y112.80 Hourly high Dec 7, now support

*SUP 3: Y112.57 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 4: Y112.38 Initial recovery high Dec 6, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move through Y112.87 and then Monday's Y113.09 high, has

generated fresh upside interest. This now centres on Y113.77-Y113.82. A

combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the 76.4% retrace level of the

preceding Y114.74-Y110.84 fall. While capped here, look to Y113.13-Y113.09 for

initial support and clues, as loss will open up corrective potential of the rise

from Y111.99. Above Y113.82 and Y114.24-Y114.34 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y132.88 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.50/60 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: Y133.88 76.4% Fibo of Y134.38-Y132.26

*PRICE: Y133.77 @1033GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.11/20 Dec 8 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.71 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6

*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support at Y132.26 last Wednesday, now moving back up

the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3 months. The

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y133.88 is the next potential barrier to gains,

Y134.05-Y134.38 higher. In the interim, support comes from Y133.20-Y133.11, loss

would trigger a deeper correction of that rise from Y132.26, with

Y132.71-Y132.55 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fresh Rally Now Has Stg0.8850-Stg0.8854 As Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880/90 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8841 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8818 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8773 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717/25 Initial high Dec 8, hourly support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low, equality fall from Stg0.8868

*COMMENTARY* Last weeks recovery was unable to deal with Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880

resistance. This leaving the downside vulnerable to a further assault. Initial

warning was the move back below Stg0.8780 and then Stg0.8756 on Friday. A low of

Stg0.8689 then seen, just above the swing target at Stg0.8687, this protecting

against a Stg0.8642 fall. Subsequent rally above Stg0.8810-15 has Stg0.8850-54

as next barrier. Meanwhile, Stg0.8773-Stg0.8717 support.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2885-$1.2893 The Bar To $1.2909-$1.2927 Return

*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% $1.3794-$1.2061, 1% vol

*RES 2: $1.2909 Nov 30 high

*RES 1: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.2851 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2825 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2805 Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.2785 Hourly base Dec 6

*SUP 4: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Held last Tuesday, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between $1.2705-10

resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has

surpassed all near term resistance including the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842.

The $1.2885-$1.2893 area now the remaining barrier to further upside hopes.

Support $1.2825-1.2805, loss would concern.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Has $1242.5-$1240.9 As Next Potential Target Zone

*RES 4: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1254.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1251.2 @1048GMT

*SUP 1: $1242.5 1.618x $1299.3-$1270.4 from $1289.3

*SUP 2: $1241.9 1.618 swing of $1263.8-$1299.3

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Having lost key support from $1262.3 and $1260.7 earlier last week,

the pace of the fall quickened. This now sees congested support from between

$1242.5 and $1240.9, as the next potential target area and a brake against a

deeper $1232.6 decline. Resistance meanwhile, comes initially from $1254.5,

above which a succession of recent lows now combine to form an umbrella of

resistance above.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]