MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2685 10 year falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 2: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high

*RES 1: $1.2530/38 2% volatility band, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2487 @1652GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2460 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2420/25 Minor intraday hourly congestion 

*SUP 3: $1.2385 Intraday low

*SUP 4: $1.2267 Jan 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to rise, moving through $1.2476 resistance. A high of

$1.2538 so far on the day, slightly above the upper 2% volatility band at

$1.2530. Has become overbought in the near term, so looking to $1.2460-$1.2420

for immediate support, although it will take a loss of $1.2389-$1.2385 however

to cause any corrective panic. Meanwhile, above $1.2538 and have to allow for

$1.2571-$1.2598 next, the latter a 61.8% Fibo retrace level.

CABLE TECHS: Heads Toward Fibo Retrace Level At $1.4368

*RES 4: $1.4515 50% Fibo of $1.7192-$1.1838

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4346 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.4320/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4270 @1703GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4260 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4215/33 Intraday low, hourly base

*SUP 3: $1.4187 Hourly low Jan 24

*SUP 4: $1.4130 Hourly base Jan 24

*COMMENTARY* For the first time in this rise we have overstepped the upper 2%

volatility band, at $1.4223 by time today. Even in extremes this is never a long

lasting scenario, so always cautious when it happens. That said, with a high of

$1.4346 so far, we are close to the next Fibo retrace level at $1.4368. In the

meantime, support from $1.4260-$1.4215 is the protection against the prospect of

a deeper correction.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.60-Y108.65 Support After Y109.04 Gives Way

*RES 4: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y109.81 Hourly base Jan 24, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.48 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y108.69 @1707GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.60/65 Aug 18 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows, 2% vol band

*SUP 3: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75

*SUP 4: Y107.32 Sep 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Most latterly breaking below the Y109.07-Y109.04 support area,

which leaves the Y108.65-Y108.60 area to take the strain next, as we head

towards the lower 2% volatility band and next batch of lows between

Y108.27-Y108.22. Meanwhile, resistance from the day's Y109.48 high is the

immediate bar to any near term recovery hopes and some better correction of

losses from the week's earlier Y111.23 high.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues 

*RES 4: Y137.17 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.92

*RES 3: Y137.05 5 month channel top, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*PRICE: Y135.76 @1712GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.92/98 Jan 24, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.28/35 1% volatility band, Jan 11 high

*COMMENTARY* Still basically range trading above Y134.98-Y134.92 support. While

held here, there is scope to return higher towards the range highs at

Y136.31-Y136.64. The 5 month rising support line and upper 1% volatility band at

the higher Y137.05 region today. Some interim support at Y135.35-Y135.25 now.

Loss of Y134.92 would caution and open up corrective potential.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: December Low At Stg0.8689 Survives Pressure

*RES 4: Stg0.8802 Jan 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8796 Jan 23 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8770 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8762 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8749 @1715GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8687/89 Intraday, Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8628 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8547 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.8543 1.618 swing of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues. Most

latterly the loss of Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737 support has again switched the focus

back on The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689. While held around here, then look to

resistance from between Stg0.8730-35, back through here allows the chance of

further corrective gains toward Stg0.8762-Stg0.8770. Below Stg0.8689 and not

much ahead of the lower 2% volatility band.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2364/66 Jan 17 low, hourly high Jan 24

*RES 1: $1.2340/55 Hourly resistance, Jan 5 low

*PRICE: $1.2318 @1718GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2282/92 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2170 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* the decline has continued, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355 behind,

as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2294 by

time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next protection

against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is layered between

$1.2340-$1.2366, needing to escape the latter before any correction has room to

breathe.

GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next

*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*PRICE: $1361.0 @1719GMT

*SUP 1: $1349.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support rising too, $1349.0-$1344.8 now the nearest of note.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]