MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pulling Back After Unable To Break Through

$1.2523-$1.2538 

*RES 4: $1.2598/18 61.8% $1.3994-$1.0340, 3 month res line

*RES 3: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1.2523 Feb 1 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2480/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2458 @1600GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2409/18 Intraday low, 76.4% of $1.2385-$1.2523

*SUP 2: $1.2384/85 Hourly base Jan 30, Feb 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.2335 Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Moving gradually higher over the week but unable to trade back

through $1.2523-$1.2538, needed in order to shake off the negative signals

provided by last Thursday's 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. Support from

$1.2470 has subsequently been lost, allowing a deeper $1.2418 fall next. The

$1.2385-$1.2384 area now seen as key support. Resistance $1.2480-$1.2495 but

sustained break above $1.2538 needed before thoughts can turn higher again.

CABLE TECHS: Giving Back Ground After Failure To Break Above $1.4287

*RES 4: $1.4279/87 Feb 1 high, 1% vol band, Jan 26 high

*RES 3: $1.4234 Intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 2: $1.4202 Initial intraday low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4170/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4126 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4094 61.8% Fibo of $1.3980-$1.4279

*SUP 2: $1.4050 76.4% Fibo of $1.3980-$1.4279

*SUP 3: $1.4007 38.2% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4346

*SUP 4: $1.3980/92 Jan 30 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Thursday saw a challenge into the $1.4260-$1.4287 area, a high of

$1.4279. Needed to sustain a break back above $1.4287 to return near term bias

back to the topside and another assault on $1.4346-$1.4368. As a consequence,

support from $1.4180-$1.4150 has subsequently been lost today. This leaving

$1.4122 vulnerable and potential for a deeper $1.4094-$1.4050 fall. Resistance

$1.4170-$1.4202, ahead of now important $1.4234.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Continues, Scope To See Y110.49-Y110.84

*RES 4: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.63/72 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 1: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y110.37 @1515GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.75 Feb 1 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y109.45 Jan 31 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.21/23 Jan 29,30 highs, hourly base Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y108.75/80 Congestion area Jan 26-Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to make recovery gains this week following last

week's Y108.28 base. Today's further rise through Y109.88-Y110.19, now opens the

way for a higher correction of recent losses from Y111.48, with Y110.49-Y110.84

now the next upside barrier to consider. As a result, support also climbs, a

series of former highs from between Y109.75-Y109.21 now providing a potential

cushion, back below the latter would caution now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Enters Next Y137.40-Y137.65 Resistance Area

*RES 4: Y138.86 1.618 swing of Y136.64-Y133.05

*RES 3: Y138.45 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y137.65 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 1: Y137.40/50 Equality rise from Y134.13, intraday high

*PRICE: Y137.06 @1518GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Jan 5 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs, now support

*SUP 3: Y135.91/97 Hourly low/high Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y135.35/39 Hourly low/high Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* The break of the recent Y136.64 range top has today been followed

by a move above the upper 1% volatility band at Y137.10 and the 5 month rising

resistance line at Y137.23. This now has the potential for a higher

Y137.40-Y137.65 rise next. Through here and not much currently showing until the

2% band and swing target between Y138.45-Y138.86. Meanwhile, support from

Y136.64-Y136.29 offers near term downside protection.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Opens Higher Stg0.8805-Stg0.8816 Corrective Potential

*RES 4: Stg0.8833/38 Jan 30, 18 highs, 61.8% 0.8930-0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8816 Jan 29, Jan 31 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8805 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8833-Stg0.8716

*RES 1: Stg0.8799 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8794 @1520GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8757/67 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8738 Jan 31 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8716 Feb 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows

*COMMENTARY* The recovery to Stg0.8833 earlier in the week, fell short of higher

resistance from Stg0.8838. The latter the Jan 18 high and a 61.8% Fibo retrace

of the previous Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687 fall. The subsequent fall was relatively

swift resulting in a challenge and slight break of pivotal 76.4% Fibo retrace at

Stg0.8721. Unable to sustain this as yet, the break back above Stg0.8760-65

resistance is encouraging, Stg0.8805-Stg0.8816 now resistance.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correction Gathers Pace After $0.7957-$0.7937 Gives Way

*RES 4: $0.8042/46 Jan 30 low, hourly high Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.8016 Intraday recovery high

*RES 2: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7970/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7936 @1531GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7894 38.2% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 2: $0.7882/85 2% vol band, 76.4% of $0.7808-$0.8136

*SUP 3: $0.7875 Jan 5 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7808 Jan 9-Jan 10 lows

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last month's $0.8136 high has gathered pace over the

last couple of days, resulting in a loss of the 8 week rising support line, at

$0.8041 by time today. This puts immediate pressure back on the downside. The

further loss of $0.7957-$0.7937 today, now eyes Fibo support at $0.7894 and the

lower 2% volatility band below. In the interim, $0.7970-$0.7987 provides the bar

to any near term recovery process.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovers After Lower 1% Volatility Band Holds Fall

*RES 4: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 3: $1.2473/78 76.4% Fibo of $1.2542-$1.2249, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.2430/35 61.8% of $1.2542-$1.2249, Jan 22 low

*RES 1: $1.2395/00 50% of $1.2542-$1.2249, Jan 19 low

*PRICE: $1.2394 @1536GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2249 Jan 31 low

*SUP 2: $1.2214/20 1.618 swing of $1.2282-$1.2392, 1% vol 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2198 Sep 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Wednesday, having failed to make any

inroads into $1.2400 resistance. Last week's $1.2282 low gave way, as did the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Eventually found a base at $1.2249, in line

with the lower 1% volatility band at the time. This protecting the downside from

a further fall towards two $1.2214-$1.2209 swing targets. Resistance from

$1.2336-$1.2352 meanwhile has given way, allowing a $1.2395-$1.2473 rise.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 3: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1351.1 Feb 1 high

*RES 1: $1342.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1329.8 @1555GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 3: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1316.7 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower, $1327.9-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]