MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Sustained $1.2295 Break Would Open Up Corrective

Potential

*RES 4: $1.2360/65 Congestion area Feb 5-Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2335 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2314 Feb 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2295 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2287 @1430GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2212/19 Intraday low, 1.618 swing $1.2335-$1.2523

*SUP 2: $1.2194 3 month bull channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.2162/65 38.2% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.538, Jan 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.2137 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall since seeing the rally back to $1.2406 early on

Wednesday. Now has sights on the swing target at $1.2219 and perhaps the 3 month

bull channel base projection at $1.2194. These currently seen as the protection

to the next important area of support between $1.2165-$1.2162. A low from mid

January and the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the $1.1554-$1.2538 rise. Meanwhile, the

day's $1.2295 high is the bar to any higher recovery potential.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4082-$1.4091 Resistance As Correction Arrives

*RES 4: $1.4226 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3836

*RES 3: $1.4219 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.4151 Feb 5 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3836

*RES 1: $1.4082/91 Feb 2 low, 50% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3836

*PRICE: $1.4046 @1440GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3918 Initial intraday recovery high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3890 Congestion area Feb 7-8

*SUP 4: $1.3836 Feb 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support on Tuesday from $1.3836, a test to the lower 2%

volatility band, at the time. The subsequent recovery initially faltered around

$1.3994-$1.4000 but with today's move back above the higher $1.4032 region, the

belief in a topside correction has arrived. Likely aimed at $1.4082-$1.4091

next, which region at $1.4086, also includes the swing target of the recent

$1.3994-$1.3845 fall. Support from above $1.3980 provides near term protection.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.00-Y110.33 Provides Next Potential Upside Barrier

*RES 4: Y110.48/57 Feb 2 high, broken 5 month support line

*RES 3: Y110.33 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.00 76.4% Fibo of Y110.48-Y108.46

*RES 1: Y109.79 Intraday high 

*PRICE: Y109.65 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.12 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y108.80/92 Hourly support, Feb 7 low

*SUP 3: Y108.46 Feb 6 low

*SUP 4: Y108.15/28 1% volatility band, Jan 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Recovery came to a full stop at Y110.48 last week, just below the

Jan 19 low at Y110.49 and also the base of the previously broken 5 month support

line, at Y110.57. The subsequent fall has found support from Y108.46, this the

protection to the more important lower Y108.28-Y108.15 region. In the interim,

Y110.00 is now the near term bar to a renewed upside push and Y109.12-Y108.80

provides support against a Y108.46 return.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Threatening Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y136.69 Initial low Feb 5, now resistance

*RES 3: Y135.85 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: Y135.37 Congestion area Feb 6-7

*RES 1: Y134.80 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y134.24 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.82/90 Feb 7 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y133.59 61.8% Fibo of Y131.17-Y137.51

*SUP 3: Y133.05 5 month bull channel base, Jan 10 low

*SUP 4: Y132.67/76 76.4% of Y131.17-Y137.51, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Downside pressure resumes, the lower 1% volatility band coming

under pressure on Wednesday. This, at Y133.90 by time today and the Y133.82 low,

now provide the protection against a further Y133.59-Y133.05 fall. The latter a

notable low from Jan 10 and the current level of the 5 month bull channel base

projection. resistance in the meantime, is from the day's Y134.80 high but

likely needing a move back above Y135.37 for impact.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Resumes After Failure To Sustain Stg0.8900 Break

*RES 4: Stg0.8842 Intraday high

*RES 3: Stg0.8823 Initial intraday low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8800 Further hourly resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8775/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8749 @1455GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8732/40 Intraday low, 76.4% Stg0.8687-Stg0.8909

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717/20 Feb 1 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8687 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Following the inability to sustain a move back above Stg0.8900,

pressure has resumed on the downside. Support from the Feb 5 low at Stg0.8813

has given way and the subsequent slide has also lost the Feb 2 low at Stg0.8757.

This has put pressure on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8740, a low of

Stg0.8732 before seeing a small bounce. This will find Stg0.8775-Stg0.8800 as

resistance now. Directly below Stg0.8732 and focus back on Stg0.8720-Stg0.8717.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Caution As Decline Oversteps 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7954 Feb 5 high

*RES 2: $0.7911 Feb 6 high

*RES 1: $0.7875/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7813 @1500GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7809 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7788 1.618 swing of $0.7835-$0.7911

*SUP 3: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 4: $0.7730/32 Dec 27, Dec 25 lows

*COMMENTARY* The decline has gathered pace and exuberance over the course of the

week. A low of $0.7788 today, in line with the swing target of the

$0.7835-$0.7911 recovery. This below the lower 2% volatility band at $0.7809 by

time today. As always, cautious when this occurs, as it is never a long lasting

event. Resistance $0.7875-$0.7885, back above the latter would provide some

respite. Lose $0.7788 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at $0.7744 next.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Edges Through $1.2585-$1.2591 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 3: $1.2664/66 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249, 2% vol band

*RES 2: $1.2624 Dec 5 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2591/98 Jan 11, intraday highs

*PRICE: $1.2589 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2515/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2491 Feb 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2465 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 4: $1.2451 Feb 2 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continues apace this week, the latest rise to $1.2598,

takes us just through the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2585 and the Jan 11 high

at $1.2591. A sustained move higher will see the Dec 5 low at $1.2624 and then

the $1.2664-$1.2666 region as the next potential targets above. As a result,

support rises to $1.2530-$1.2515 but only a loss of Tuesday's $1.2491 low will

cause any near term panic.

GOLD TECHS: Focus Next On $1308.3-$1301.4 As Decline Continues

*RES 4: $1346.2 Feb 6 high

*RES 3: $1337.7 Jan 29 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1332.6 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1322.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1310.4 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*SUP 2: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Paying the price for the inability to push on through $1367.3

resistance. Has gradually given up ground since, most latterly losing support

from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.1. As a consequence, focus is now on

the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, this the next downside protection against a deeper

$1301.4-$1286.1 fall. Meanwhile, nearest resistance comes from $1322.7-$1332.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]